Supply fell on dip in shipments from Spain and UAE
Supply likely tightened again in December
Tighter supply in Q4 would cushion impact of demand slowdown
Europe’s Group III base oils supply fell to a ten-month low in October, squeezed by a dip in shipments from Spain and the UAE.
Total supply of less than 125,000 tonnes in October dipped from close to 150,000 tonnes in each of the previous two months, government and shipping data showed.
Group III supply likely recovered in November as more shipments from the Middle East reached Europe.
Supply then showed signs of tightening again in December as arrivals from the Middle East dipped and shipments from Spain extended their slowdown.
Flows from Indonesia also likely declined. Shipments to Europe only resumed in late November after pausing in October because of refinery production issues in the southeast Asia country.
Tighter Group III supply during the final quarter of the year contrasted with signs of healthy availability of Group II base oils in Europe.
Lower Group III volumes also helped to cushion the impact of a seasonal slowdown in demand before year-end.
Europe’s ongoing Group III base oils price-strength relative to other grades reflected the product’s tighter fundamentals.
Group III prices were also increasingly firm versus US prices during the fourth quarter, boosting the incentive to move more shipments to Europe from sources like the Middle East.
A swathe of supplies from the Middle East instead moved to the US during the fourth quarter.
The shipments added to a pick-up in Group III volumes in the US, while compounding the tighter availability in Europe during the final weeks of the year.