• South Korea's base oils exports to the US remained well above typical levels in June, extending a run of elevated shipments

• Higher exports reinforced South Korea's growing role in replacing lost Middle East Group III supply into the US

• The shift increased South Korea's importance to US buyers while leaving less supply available for other export markets

South Korea's base oils exports to the US remained unusually high in June, extending the country's growing role in replacing lost Middle East Group III supply.

Exports eased to 68,500 tonnes in June from 85,000 tonnes in May, Korea Customs Service data showed. Shipments still rose 52% from a year earlier and remained well above the previous year's monthly average of around 43,000 tonnes.

The increase extended a broader trend.

Shipments surged in three of the four months through June, lifting the US share of South Korea's total exports to more than 18% during that period from around 12.5% in 2025.

The sustained strength coincided with a sharp fall in Middle East Group III shipments to the US following the disruption to exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

South Korean refiners have increasingly stepped in to fill part of that gap, strengthening their position in one of the world's largest premium-grade markets.

Key Highlights

·         South Korea’s May exports to the US, combined with near-zero US imports from the Middle East, totalled around 85,000 tonnes, well below the combined monthly average of more than 127,000 tonnes in 2025, with June's total set to be even lower.

·         South Korea's share of US imports stood at 50% in April and 43% in May, both far above its 26% share in 2025.

·         Unusually high Group III prices continued supporting high refinery utilisation and exports.

Market Repercussions

South Korea’s stronger flows to the US showed both the opportunity and the limits of replacing lost Middle East supply.

Middle East producers previously supplied more than two-fifths of US imports, leaving a gap that other suppliers can’t fully replace.

The gap was set to widen as maintenance at Group III plants elsewhere further tightens global availability over the coming months, adding to pressure on South Korean refiners to sustain elevated output.

The move increased buyers’ dependence on shipments from the Northeast Asian country just months after the Middle East disruptions exposed the risk of such an over-reliance on a single supply source.

For South Korea, the disruption has become an opportunity: more sales, a larger share of the US market, and stronger ties with buyers that could outlast the disruption that created them.