Singapore's base oils exports rose in the four weeks to 9 September, as a surge in domestic shipments raised the prospect of a firmer recovery in local supply just as regional availability tightens.

Total exports rose to more than 155,000 tonnes, the second-highest level since May, Enterprise Singapore data showed.

The rebound was driven by a jump in domestic shipments to their highest weekly volume since mid-June, sharply lifting their share of total exports over the past two weeks.

Exports to China rebounded to their highest level in more than a month. Shipments to India held at unusually low levels for a second straight week and exports to Southeast Asia stayed well below typical levels.

A firmer recovery would be timely as seasonal demand picks up in China and India, where supply remains tight, while upcoming maintenance in Taiwan and Saudi Arabia and continued disruption to Saudi shipments could limit alternative supplies.

Key Highlights

·         Domestic exports jumped to more than 45,000 tonnes in the most recent week, the highest weekly volume since mid-June.

·         Their share of total exports held above 94% for a second straight week, a level exceeded only three other times this year.

·         That lifted domestic exports' four-week share of total exports to 75%, from a multi-year low of 71% the previous week, though it was still below the 86% share in the first quarter.

·         Shipments to India remained below 10,000 tonnes for a second week, holding at their lowest level since 2023.

·         Imports from the Netherlands reached 26,000 tonnes over the past two weeks, lifting the four-week total to the highest in more than a month.

Market Repercussions

The stronger domestic export share would make Singapore's recovery more significant if it persists, pointing to firmer local supply rather than a greater reliance on re-exports.

But the latest jump in imports from the Netherlands repeated a similar pattern to the one that coincided with Singapore's export decline around mid-year, raising uncertainty over the sustainability of the latest recovery.

A sustained rise in domestic exports would give Asian buyers another source of supply, easing pressure from tighter output elsewhere in the region.

The prolonged volatility in Singapore’s trade flows is already giving Asian buyers more reason to diversify their supply sources rather than rely too heavily on any single supplier.