Singapore's base oil imports remained near multi-year highs in the four weeks to August 5, while exports edged lower, pointing to production constraints extending into a fourth month.

Imports held at more than 125,000 tonnes during the four-week period, Enterprise Singapore data showed. The volume was down from a multi-year high of more than 140,000 tonnes a week earlier but still the second- highest since December 2020.

Inflows stayed elevated amid a sustained flow of shipments from Europe and China, as well as the arrival of a rare cargo from the UAE.

The wave of imports created scope for higher exports. Instead, total shipments fell back below 130,000 tonnes, well below average levels seen before May, suggesting most of the additional supplies were absorbed domestically.

Re-exports' share of total exports fell to their lowest since early March, adding to signs that most imported material remained in Singapore.

The persistently high imports, alongside subdued exports and even lower re-exports, pointed to Singapore continuing to rely on overseas supplies to help meet more of its domestic requirements.

Key Highlights

·         Imports from Europe held at more than 35,000 tonnes, more than double their average monthly level in 2025, while flows from China held close to record-high levels.

·         A cargo from the UAE arrived in the past week, adding to signs that some delayed Middle East shipments were continuing to reach Asia.

·         Re-exports almost completely halted over the past week even as a wave of imports continued to arrive.

·         Exports to India rebounded to the highest in more than two months after holding at multi-year lows in June and July.

Market Repercussions

The longer Singapore's production remained constrained, the more time competing suppliers had to strengthen relationships with buyers that have traditionally relied on Singapore for regular supply.

South Korea, China, Japan and India all kept output elevated in recent months, allowing them to expand exports while Singapore relied increasingly on imported barrels to support domestic supply.

Singapore's import requirements were also tightening availability elsewhere. The inflows from Europe and the US reduced the volumes available for other export markets, extending the impact beyond Southeast Asia.

Any recovery could prove difficult to sustain if Singapore's lower output reflects disrupted Middle East feedstock supply. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains constrained, suggesting feedstock availability could take time to recover even if regional tensions ease.