Base oils exports rebounded in the four weeks to 22 April, recovering from a two-year low in early April
Exports to India, Southeast Asia and China recovered, adding supply to key regional markets facing tightening availability
A Qatar cargo arrived for the first time in more than a month, despite the pause in Middle East flows since end-February
Singapore’s base oils exports rebounded in the four weeks to 22 April, adding supply to a region facing tightening availability.
Total exports rose to more than 171,000 tonnes, up from less than 125,000 tonnes the previous week and a two-year low of less than 120,000 tonnes in early April, Enterprise Singapore data showed.
Exports slumped in early April as tightening crude oil supply and surging diesel prices incentivised regional refiners to prioritise motor fuels output over base oils.
Those moves raised concern about blenders’ ability to secure sufficient base oils supply.
The rebound in weekly shipments over the past two weeks pointed to the uneven impact of those disruptions and provided additional supply to markets such as Southeast Asia and India.
Key Highlights
· Four-week exports to India rose to the highest in more than a month, closer to typical levels over the past year.
· Exports to Southeast Asia also recovered, even as they remained just below typical levels.
· Exports to China resumed their rise, holding well above typical levels.
· Singapore’s imports over the past week included a cargo from Qatar for the first time in more than a month.
Market Repercussions
The surge in Asia’s base oils exports in March helped cover a seasonal rise in regional demand and had yet to reflect the impact of supply disruptions from end-February.
The volatility of Singapore’s exports in late March and first-half April pointed to the growing impact of those disruptions and refiners’ response to tighter feedstock supply and strong diesel margins.
The recent rebound in exports could point to the uneven impact of disruptions, or to refiners maintaining base oils output to meet term commitments.
Either way, the shipments provided valuable additional supply at a time when availability was expected to tighten further.
The Qatar cargo was the largest this year and followed a gap of more than a month without such shipments, after flows from the Middle East country paused from end-February.