Singapore’s base oils exports fell to a three-month low in the four weeks to 18 February, as shipments originating from other markets slumped and regional demand slowed during the Lunar New Year holiday period.

Total exports fell to 140,000 tonnes, down from 156,000 tonnes the previous week and the lowest level since early November, Enterprise Singapore data showed.

The slowdown likely reflected seasonal factors across Asia during the Lunar New Year holidays in second-half February.

Even so, the continued drop in domestic-origin cargoes since first-half December suggested that additional factors could be weighing on trade flows.

Key Highlights

·         Exports of base oils originating from other markets fell even more sharply than domestic shipments, cutting their share of total exports to just 11%, the lowest since the start of the year.

·         The pattern mirrors early 2025, when exports dropped during the Lunar New Year period before rebounding to a two-year high by mid-March.

·         Exports to Southeast Asia slipped out of their recent three-month range to the lowest since early November.

·         Exports to China fell to their lowest level so far this year.

Market Repercussions

A repeat of last year’s seasonal pattern during the Lunar New Year period would imply a sharp recovery in exports over the coming weeks.

The lack of any such rebound would instead point to other market dynamics.

Those could include demand-side factors such as Chinese buyers working down inventories they built up in recent weeks before returning to the market.

An extension of the downward trend in domestic exports could also imply supply-side constraints impacting shipment volumes.