Singapore’s base oils exports extended their recovery in the four weeks to 29 April, with stronger flows cushioning signs of slower shipments from other Asian suppliers.

Total exports edged up to more than 180,000 tonnes, up from less than 175,000 tonnes the previous week and below 120,000 tonnes in first-half April, Enterprise Singapore data showed.

The recovery left shipments below Singapore’s unusually high March exports of more than 200,000 tonnes, but in line with monthly volumes of around 178,000 tonnes in the year to March.

Exports remained elevated even as regional refiners cut run rates and prioritised motor fuels production in response to ongoing feedstock supply disruptions.

Key Highlights

·         Four-week exports to India rebounded to the highest since early March, narrowing the gap with China-bound flows to the smallest in more than two months.

·         Shipments to Southeast Asia extended their recovery to the highest in more than a month, climbing well above typical monthly levels over the past year.

·         Exports to China were the outlier, easing week-on-week and holding in a narrower range throughout April.

Market Repercussions

Signs of slowing shipments from Taiwan and South Korea in April increased demand for additional cargoes from Singapore, especially to Southeast Asia and India.

Both markets remained reliant on imports to meet demand, in contrast with China, where rising domestic base oils output deepened self-sufficiency in recent months.

That reliance increased the importance of Singapore’s exports staying at elevated levels, with limited alternative sources available to offset any slowdown in those shipments.