Singapore’s base oils exports rebounded to a two-month high in the four weeks to 25 February, with a surge in shipments from local production pointing to a pick-up in domestic output.

Total exports rose to more than 176,000 tonnes, up from a three-month low of around 140,000 tonnes the previous week, Enterprise Singapore data showed.

The sharp swing in volumes compared with last week could reflect distortions linked to the Lunar New Year holiday period.

Even accounting for seasonal factors, the rise in domestic exports to an eleven-month high marks a break from the downward trend that had persisted since early December.  

Key Highlights

·         Domestic exports rose to close to 160,000 tonnes, accounting for 90% of total shipments for the first time in more than a month and only the second time in more than a year.

·         Domestic exports were capped at no more than 140,000 tonnes on each of those previous occasions, well below current levels.

·         Total exports rose even as imports fell to the lowest in more than a month, with shipments from US and Europe pausing for only the second time in over seven months.

·         Exports to China rebounded, matching their highest level in almost four months.

·         Exports to Southeast Asia recovered, returning to the firm, rangebound level seen since mid-November.

·         Exports to India remained relatively subdued, staying well below peak levels reached earlier this year.

Market Repercussions

Domestic exports had trended lower in recent months even after new production capacity came online last September.

The break above that downtrend, combined with slowing imports, could point to a structural shift in Singapore’s supply dynamics.

An extension of the pick-up in domestic shipments would boost regional supply.

It could also curb Singapore’s need for inflows from the US and Europe to maintain elevated export volumes, pressuring those supplies to target alternative markets.