Indonesia’s Group III base oils exports rebounded in December, rising to a three-month high as shipments recovered after an unexpected plant outage earlier in the fourth quarter.

Total Group III exports rose to 20,500 tonnes in December, up from 13,000 tonnes in November and just 10,500 tonnes in October, Statistics Indonesia data showed.

October volumes fell to a four-month low following an unplanned production pause at Indonesia’s sole Group III unit.

Key Highlights

·         December exports included a regular Group III cargo to the Netherlands, which is set to arrive in the second half of February.

·         Fourth-quarter exports totalled 44,000 tonnes, the lowest quarterly volume in a year, highlighting the impact of October’s plant-disruption.

·         Full-year Group III exports exceeded 220,000 tonnes, rising 18% year on year to a three-year high.

·         Indonesia’s December base oils imports fell 23% year on year, dipping for the second time in three months and contrasting with a surge in inflows in other southeast Asian markets like the Philippines and Vietnam.

·         Fourth-quarter imports slipped 8% year on year, falling for the first time in three quarters.

·         South Korea’s share of fourth-quarter imports rose to more than 20%, rebounding from unusually low levels of around 12% during the previous three quarters.

·         Full-year imports of 562,000 tonnes in 2025 rose by 2% year on year, increasing for a fifth straight year and reflecting growing consumption and increasing requirements for overseas supplies.

·         Singapore remained Indonesia’s largest supplier in 2025, with its 72% share of imports rising from 70% in 2024.

Market Repercussions

The year-end slowdown in inflows by southeast Asia’s largest importer contrasted with stronger import momentum elsewhere in the region.

Any extension of this trend could complicate regional refiners’ challenge of placing rising volumes, especially as new production capacity comes online in Asia and neighbouring markets.