Lubricants consumption rose for an eighth straight month as surging auto sales and strong economic growth boost demand
Sustained consumption growth keeps pressure on base oils feedstock supplies already tightened by falling Middle East shipments
A further dip in Middle East supplies could force blenders to seek replacement volumes at a time when stocks are already tight
India’s lubricants consumption rose in February for an eighth straight month, sustaining pressure on base oils supplies that could intensify as the Middle East conflict threatens a key source of base oils imports.
Total lubricants demand rose to 413,000 tonnes in February, edging up from 411,000 tonnes in January and by 17% year on year, Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas data showed.
The sustained rise in consumption kept the country’s base oils supplies tight since the middle of last year even as domestic output rose and overseas shipments increased.
Key Highlights
· Lubricants consumption exceeded the 400,000 tonne level in February for a sixth straight month, reflecting the sustained surge in requirements.
· Before September 2025, demand exceeded that level on just six occasions in the previous 44 months.
· Demand is likely to extend its rise in March, when blenders’ moves to meet end-of-year sales targets add to a seasonal surge in consumption.
· India’s automobile sales rose in February for a seventh straight month, driven by strong growth across all vehicle segments and in both rural and urban markets.
Market Repercussions
Surging auto sales and strong industrial production growth raised the prospect of domestic lubricants consumption extending its rise, keeping pressure on blenders to secure enough feedstock to meet demand.
India’s growing domestic base oils production in recent months helped to cover a larger share of those requirements.
But the country remains heavily reliant on overseas base oils supplies.
Base oils imports from the Middle East already fell sharply in December and January because of plant-maintenance work in Saudi Arabia and a sustained slowdown in flows from Iran and Iraq.
The Middle East conflict raised the prospect of extending that slowdown to other sources such as the UAE and Qatar.
The Middle East covered almost a fifth of India’s base oils imports in 2025. A further dip in supplies from those markets would force blenders to seek replacement cargoes at a time when stocks are already tight.