Output likely to stay lower through Q4 2025 due to ongoing maintenance
Lower output sustains reliance on imports to meet strong lube demand
New domestic production capacity expected to cut reliance on overseas supplies
India’s base oils output slid in October to its lowest in a year, increasing domestic blenders’ reliance on overseas supplies to meet firm lube demand.
Output of 97,000 tonnes in October fell from over 123,000 tonnes in each of the previous two months, government data showed.
The volume was lower than production levels in the first half of the year, which were already affected by extended plant maintenance.
The reduced output in October pointed to additional maintenance work or production issues that were set to extend through November and early December ahead of the planned start-up of new production capacity by year-end.
The output decline kept wide the gap between domestic supply and demand, pushing blenders to seek more imports, while strong lube consumption compounded the supply-demand imbalance.
The domestic slowdown coincided with the planned shutdown of a key base oils unit in Saudi Arabia for maintenance work from mid-November to year-end.
Saudi Arabia’s proximity and regular flows to India amplified the impact, raising demand for shipments from alternative overseas suppliers such as South Korea, Singapore and the US.
The current supply-demand mismatch is expected to ease in the coming months, as new base oils production capacity comes online, curbing India’s reliance on imports.