Base oils imports stayed below typical levels for a second month, with January-February inflows the lowest for the period in three years
The Middle East's direct share of imports stayed low, limiting immediate disruption risk
India’s reliance on imports left it more exposed to run-cut risk and lower supply from Asia
India’s base oils imports stayed lower than usual in February, leaving domestic stocks tight ahead of a seasonal rise in demand and the supply disruptions that followed in March.
Total base oils imports held below 290,000 tonnes for a second month, marking their second-lowest level in eighteen months and cutting January-February inflows to the lowest for that period in three years, provisional customs data showed.
The slowdown in imports contrasted with a continued rise in India’s lubricants consumption, complicating blenders’ efforts to maintain sufficient inventories for routine demand.
That challenge became harder as conflict-driven disruptions in the Middle East cut base oils flows and feedstock availability.
Key Highlights
· The Middle East’s 14% share of total imports rose from 12% in January but stayed below the 19% share in 2025.
· Imports from Saudi Arabia rebounded to a three-month high, after slumping to multi-year lows in December and January.
· A pause in imports from Iran and Iraq continued for a second month, after a marked slowdown in shipments from those markets since the end of the third quarter of 2025.
· Shipments transiting the Strait of Hormuz accounted for 8% of total imports, down from 11% in 2025.
· Imports from the US fell to a 14-month low, cutting January-February inflows to the lowest for that period in at least a decade.
· Imports from Singapore fell to a 32-month low as more shipments from that market moved to China.
· Imports from Turkmenistan extended their surge, with average monthly volumes of more than 12,000 tonnes since December up from less than 2,000 tonnes/month during the preceding two years.
Market Repercussions
The relatively small share of India’s imports that transited the Strait of Hormuz limited the direct impact of the closure of the strait.
The loss of access to UAE ports as a destination for some cargoes could instead trigger a short-term boost in redirected shipments to India.
India’s reliance on imports for most of its base oils requirements left it more exposed to any drop in run rates and base oils output from its main suppliers in Asia.
Moves to expand domestic production were unlikely to reduce India’s overseas requirements in the short term.
Domestic output also faced run-cut pressure as refiners worked to secure enough feedstock and prioritised motor fuels output over base oils.