Exports to the Middle East fell to a six-month low in February, with stocks tightening before flows were disrupted
Global exports were already declining, with European and US shipments at multi-month lows in January
Feedstock constraints and redirected Asian cargoes could slow any recovery in flows once shipments resume
Asia’s base oils exports to the Middle East slipped to a six-month low in February, trimming the region’s supply even before the outbreak of war halted any additional flows.
Total exports to Saudi Arabia and the UAE combined fell to around 31,000 tonnes in February, down from more than 35,000 tonnes in January to the lowest since last August, according to Korea Customs Service, Enterprise Singapore and other government data.
A surge in exports to the Middle East through the final four months of last year cushioned the impact of plant maintenance in Saudi Arabia in the fourth quarter.
The surge also helped clear surplus supplies from other regions at a time when demand in those markets faced a seasonal slowdown.
Rising demand in European, US and Asian markets now curbed the need for outlets such as the Middle East to absorb surplus volumes. Tighter supply instead left the region with dwindling stocks and no replenishment cargoes expected.
Key Highlights
· Global base oils exports to the Middle East already fell to a five-month low of around 41,000 tonnes in January, down from average monthly volumes of more than 75,000 tonnes in the fourth quarter of last year.
· January shipments from Europe fell to a ten-month low of less than 4,500 tonnes, and shipments from the US to a two-year low of less than 1,000 tonnes.
· Asia exports accounted for more than 85% of total shipments to the Middle East in January, up from an already-high 60% in 2025.
Market Repercussions
Asia’s role as the main base oils supplier to the Middle East was likely to grow as the US and Europe prioritised securing enough volumes for their own markets over the coming months.
Asia’s base oils supply to the region was also likely to face constraints as plant maintenance, feedstock supply disruption and surging diesel margins prompted refiners to prioritise motor fuel production.
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz made the UAE and Saudi Arabia inaccessible to additional cargoes, forcing Asian refiners to redirect shipments to other markets.
The combination of falling imports, closed shipping routes and redirected Asian supply left the Middle East with shrinking inventories and was likely to slow any subsequent recovery in flows once regular shipments resumed.