US base oils and lubricants exports fell close to a three-year low in February, cutting shipments to markets such as Europe just as seasonal demand and emerging supply disruptions tightened availability from alternative sources.

Total base oils and lubricants exports fell to around 2.50 million barrels (352,000 tonnes) in February, down 38% year on year to the lowest since November and the second-lowest since February 2023, US Census Bureau data showed.

Rebounding domestic consumption offset the slump in exports since mid-2025, curbing pressure to secure overseas outlets for surplus volumes and leaving US inventories lower than usual at the start of the year.

Disruptions to global supply from end-February instead shifted the challenge to securing sufficient volumes for domestic and overseas demand.

Key Highlights

·         Base oils exports to Europe fell to less than 180,000 barrels, dipping 53% year on year to the second-lowest in sixteen months.

·         The slowdown followed a surge in shipments to Europe in December and January, clearing surplus volumes from the US and boosting regional stocks of premium-grade base oils at the start of the year.

·         Base oils exports from the district of San Francisco almost halted in February, slumping from more than 440,000 barrels in January and curbing flows from the largest source of US shipments to Europe over the past year.

·         Base oils and lubricants exports to India fell to a 27-month low, extending a pattern of unusually low shipments to the country since mid-2025.

Market Repercussions

The surge in US exports to outlets such as Europe and South America in December and January had raised concerns about those markets’ ability to continue absorbing large US surplus volumes.

The slump in February exports shifted concerns to the risk of reduced US availability at a time when overseas markets such as Europe sought sufficient supplies to cover requirements.

The concern was even more pressing for outlets such as India, which typically absorbed more spot volumes rather than term shipments from the US.

US exports fell at a time of year when they typically remained elevated to balance weaker winter domestic consumption.

They fell even before the supply disruptions that erupted from the end of February.

With tighter inventories at the start of the year, a seasonal rise in demand from the end of the first quarter and US refiners’ focus on maximising fuel production, the conditions for sustained export constraints were now in place just as overseas requirements began to rise.