US base oils imports held firm in March as an unusual surge in shipments from the Netherlands and Spain offset weaker shipments from key Group III suppliers even before wider supply disruptions tightened global availability.   

Total imports rose to 1.46 million barrels (205,000 tonnes) in March, up from 1.36 million barrels in February and matching year-earlier levels, Census Bureau data showed.

Shipments from key Group III sources such as Asia and the Middle East typically account for more than 90% of monthly US imports.

That share fell to less than 60% in March even before the late-February disruption to Middle East shipments had fully fed through.

The lower inflows reduced the market’s buffer ahead of the supply disruptions that followed, leaving the US increasingly reliant on irregular replacement cargoes from other markets.

Key Highlights

·         Base oils imports from the Middle East fell to a four-month low, with shipments from Qatar slipping to their lowest in fifteen months.

·         Imports from South Korea dipped to a thirteen-month low, with flows redirected toward China instead.

·         Imports from Spain climbed to a six-year high, with the rare large shipment contrasting with scant volumes in most months.

·         Imports from the Netherlands rose to the highest in more than a decade, making the country the largest source of US imports in March.

Market Repercussions

Middle East shipments accounted for 30% of total US imports in March, down from more than 43% in 2024-2025 and the lowest since July 2025, when plant maintenance in Bahrain and the UAE cut supply.

That share of imports was set to fall further over the coming months following the late-February pause in Middle East shipments.  

Higher inflows from other Group III sources such as Europe and Asia would partially offset the shortfall.

But a repeat of the Spain surge was unlikely, while Europe faced its own Group III shortfall following the pause in Middle East shipments to that market.

The Netherlands shipments could have included Group III supplies. Europe’s February exports pointed to an unusual surge in shipments to the US from Germany, which is a key destination for premium-grade supplies from Qatar.

Any repeat faced the same challenge as Europe managed its own Group III shortfall.

The dynamic left the US more reliant on Asia and Canada to meet Group III requirements.

South Korea’s exports to the US rebounded to a nineteen-month high in March, supporting arrivals in April.

But arrivals were expected to slow again in May, reflecting the irregularity of large volumes from that market and the difficulty of replacing lost Middle East supply.