Global base oils exports to Africa rebounded in June, but the recovery reflected stronger term supply from Europe rather than a significant improvement in spot availability.

Combined exports to Egypt, Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya rose to more than 93,000 tonnes in June from less than 60,000 tonnes in both April and May, Eurostat, US Census Bureau and other government data showed.

Most of the increase came from Europe, where term commitments account for most Africa-bound cargoes.

US exports also improved amid a rise in flows to South Africa, also a regular term buyer, while shipments to Nigeria remained almost at a standstill.

The rise in exports to term buyers and the ongoing slump in flows to Nigeria underscored the challenge for spot buyers to lock in shipments as global supply disruptions tightened surplus availability.

A seasonal slowdown in Nigeria at the start of the third quarter offset the impact of tighter supplies. A typical pickup in shipments to that market during the final months of the year would normally follow.

Tighter supply could prevent a repeat of that pattern this year.

Key Highlights

·         European exports to Africa rose above 63,000 tonnes in June, the highest in three months and above typical monthly levels.

·         Europe's share of total exports reached 70% in the second quarter, up from less than 65% in 2025 and just 50% in the first quarter.

·         US exports improved to more than 18,000 tonnes but stayed below 20,000 tonnes for a third straight month and down from average monthly levels of 32,000 tonnes in the first quarter.

·         The US's share fell to 20% in the second quarter, from 36% in the first, as tighter domestic supply limited the volumes available for Africa.

·         Exports to Egypt rose above 24,000 tonnes, the highest in 18 months.

·         Exports to Kenya rose above 13,000 tonnes, the highest in six months.

·         Exports to South Africa rose to almost 46,000 tonnes, from less than 30,000 tonnes in both April and May.

·         Nigeria's shipments stayed unusually low for a third straight month, pointing to persistently tight spot supply.

Market Repercussions

Africa's imports have typically peaked in the fourth and first quarters, a pattern that has leaned heavily on a seasonal pickup in spot flows from the US.

Nigeria, whose own shipments slumped to less than 25,000 tonnes in the second quarter, from almost 100,000 tonnes in the first, will need that pickup more than most.

That could become more difficult if spot supply remains tight.

The pick-up in Europe’s June flows to Africa coincided with a slowdown in shipments to Singapore, leaving more European supply available for other markets.

Flows to Singapore revived in August as the island-state continued to draw on European supply.

With Europe's cargoes back in demand in Asia and US spot supply still tight, Africa's spot-dependent buyers, Nigeria most of all, have less room to count on either source filling the gap before seasonal demand revives.