Global base oils exports to North Africa fell to a two-year low in February, extending a sustained slowdown and leaving the region with tighter inventories before global supply disruptions from end-February tightened availability further.

Total exports to Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and Tunisia fell to less than 27,000 tonnes in February, down from more than 35,000 tonnes in January and 39% lower year on year, Eurostat, Census Bureau and other government and shipping data showed.

North Africa relies more heavily on European supply than markets such as West Africa, amplifying its exposure to any marked tightening in European fundamentals.

Those fundamentals were already tighter than usual late last year and into early 2026, with disruptions from end-February set to add further pressure in the coming months.

Key Highlights

·         Exports fell amid a slump in flows to Egypt and Algeria that outweighed a sustained rise in shipments to Morocco.

·         Morocco’s share of total exports rose to 37% in the three months to February, up from 19% a year earlier.

·         European exports fell 29% year on year and for an eighth straight month, sliding to the lowest since mid-2024.

·         US exports of more than 2,700 tonnes maintained regular flows to the region for a ninth month.

Market Repercussions

The relatively steady shipment volumes to North Africa contrasted with more volatile flows to West Africa, pointing to term shipments accounting for a larger share of supply to the region.

That reliance on term volumes pointed to a more limited immediate impact from global disruptions that extended into the second quarter of the year.

West Africa’s greater dependence on spot shipments left it more exposed to the tighter availability in Europe and the US.