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US demand extended structural recovery, with consumption surging even before late-February supply concerns
Falling exports already tightened supply to key international markets
Reduced US availability could amplify the impact of stronger global demand from the end of the first quarter
US base oils and lubricants demand rose in February at its fastest pace in more than a decade, cutting surplus availability for export markets even before global supply disruptions from end-February.
Total base oils and lubricants consumption came to 3.31 million barrels (466,000 tonnes) in February, more than doubling year on year and extending its rebound for an eighth straight month, EIA data showed.
Lubricants demand surged across major markets in March as end-users brought forward procurement plans to cover expected supply risks over the coming months.
The US faced a similar surge, but the trend began in mid-2025 and gathered pace since then, pointing to other factors supporting the pick-up in consumption.
The emergence of supply concerns from end-February raised the prospect of an extension of elevated US consumption in the coming months.
Key Highlights
· Consumption rose year on year at its fastest pace in more than two decades to the highest February volume since 2018.
· The typical January-February fall in demand was the smallest in eight years.
· Rising domestic demand contrasted with a sustained slide in exports, which fell 38% year on year and for a ninth straight month.
· Exports’ share of total demand held below 50% for the third time in four months, matching a three-year low.
Market Repercussions
Surging consumption in other markets in March absorbed more supply and cut volumes available for export.
That pattern already began to play out in the US since mid-2025, curbing the need to move surplus volumes to markets such as Mexico and India.
The rise in demand and fall in exports during that period overlapped a seasonal slowdown in overseas consumption from the fourth quarter of last year, limiting the impact of the drop in shipments.
Fundamentals then shifted in March as demand strengthened across multiple regions.
A further rise in US demand and lower exports would coincide with stronger overseas consumption, compounding the tightening of global supply-demand fundamentals at the end of the first quarter.
