US base oils and lube demand rose in August for the second time in three months as a rebound in exports cushioned the impact of weak domestic consumption.The dynamic highlighted the importance for US suppliers to maintain high export volumes to keep fundamentals balanced.It also highlighted the weakness of domestic consumption even at a time when demand was getting a boost from moves to hold larger stocks as a buffer against weather-related supply disruptions.Domestic base oils and lube consumption of 2.35 million barrels (331,000 tonnes) in August fell from 2.75 million barrels in July to a three-month low, government data showed.The lower demand suggested blenders and distributors were already comfortable with inventory levels to manage any supply disruptions during the peak period of the hurricane season.The lower demand raised the prospect of limiting the size of surplus volumes to clear if any such disruptions were more muted than planned for, which duly materialized.Lower domestic demand also put more and earlier pressure on suppliers to redirect more shipments to overseas markets to avoid a large supply-build during the third quarter of the year.Base oils and lube exports duly rebounded to a five-month high of 4.08 million barrels in August.The rise in exports included large volumes to Mexico, a pick-up in shipments to Nigeria and an unusual surge in flows to the UK.The rise in overseas shipments lifted US base oils and lube demand, or domestic consumption and exports combined, to more than 6.40 million barrels in August.The volume rose from 6.16 million barrels in July and by 14% from year-earlier levels. It was also the highest in three years for the month of August.Exports accounted for 63% of total demand in August. The share rose from 55% in July to the second-highest level this year.The rising share of total demand, and the rise in less regular shipments, highlighted the importance of exports as the key driver of US demand and the importance of competitive prices to sustain that trend.US refiners cut their posted prices unusually early in the third quarter of this year, from the beginning of September.The steady drop in US export prices from early September also began earlier this year compared with last year, when prices only began falling from end-October 2023.The lower prices highlighted the pressure of weak domestic demand and the importance of competitive prices to sustain high exports..US’ Aug base oils exports to Europe fall
