US base oils exports to Europe fell to a twenty-two-month low in October, curbing the prospect of a large build-up of surplus premium-grade supplies in the region at the end of the year.The slump in shipments contrasted with a rise in US’ total base oils and lube exports in October.The trend suggested that a large portion of the US’ total exports consisted of surplus shipments that moved to other markets rather than to Europe despite its steep premium to US export prices.The shipment of surplus cargoes to other markets pointed to moves to avoid a large supply-build in Europe and limit any downward pressure on prices in that market.Total US base oils exports of 166,500 barrels (23,500 tonnes) to Europe in October fell from more than 611,000 barrels the previous month, government data showed.The shipment volume in September was higher than typical exports of around 450,000 barrels/month to Europe in 2024.The rise in shipments that month also preceded the start of maintenance work on a key Group II base oils plant in California in October.The plant, along with another base oils unit on the US Gulf coast, typically account for more than 70% of US base oils exports to Europe.There were instead no exports from the district of San Francisco to Europe in October.The drop in exports suggested that the rise in total shipments in September reflected moves to build stocks in Europe ahead of the plant shutdown in October.Even with the higher September volume, total US exports of around 355,000 barrels/month to Europe in the three months to October remained below typical levels.The lower volume pointed to a slowdown in shipments to the region in the final months of the year.Europe’s Group II base oils supply surged in the third quarter of the year to the highest level in more than five years amid unusually high regional output and higher-than-usual imports from the US.A drop in shipments from the US would likely help to trim Europe's supply in the fourth quarter at the same time as regional demand underwent a seasonal slowdown.The trend would curb the size of a supply-build, easing any downward pressure on regional prices..Netherlands’ Sept base oils output rises
