US base oils exports to Europe stayed lower than usual in December, curbing the size of a supply-build in that region at the end of last year and early this year.The slowdown in shipments coincided with and cushioned the impact of a seasonal dip in Europe’s lube consumption during the winter months.The steep fall in exports to markets like Europe and South America also contrasted with a jump in US shipments to Mexico.The dynamic pointed to moves to limit the impact of surplus supplies on the US’ key export markets.Total base oils exports of 349,000 barrels (49,000 tonnes) to Europe in December rose from 304,000 barrels the previous month, government data showed.The volume still fell by 37% and for the fifth time in six months from year-earlier levels.The slowdown in shipments cut total exports to Europe to 819,500 barrels in the fourth quarter of the year. The volume fell from more than 1.90 million barrels during the same period in 2023 to the lowest in at least a decade.The surge in shipments at end-2023 preceded and helped to cushion the impact of maintenance work on Europe’s sole Group II base oils plant early last year.The slump in shipments during the final months of 2024 by contrast cushioned the impact of higher Group II base oils output and weaker demand in Europe early this year.The prospect of a more manageable surplus coincided with signs of steadier Europe Group II base oils prices relative to feedstock vacuum gasoil prices in recent weeks.The premium steadied after a sustained fall from the start of the fourth quarter of last year.The price weakness at the start of the fourth quarter followed a jump in the premium of Europe Group II base oils prices over US export prices from the end of the third quarter of the year.The wider premium boosted the feasibility of moving more arbitrage shipments to Europe at a time when US suppliers sought to balance weaker demand by moving more surplus volumes to overseas markets.But Europe’s Group II price premium over US prices remained well below levels in the fourth quarter of 2023, cutting the attraction of lining up arbitrage shipments to Europe.The premium then trended steadily lower from late-October, adding to the incentive for US suppliers to move surplus cargoes to other markets instead.US base oils exports to Europe duly fell during the final three months of the year..US' Dec base oils exports stay lower.US Dec base oil exports to S America fall.Netherlands' Nov base oils output slips
