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Lubricants demand rose for the second time in three months, with automobile and industrial oils consumption increasing simultaneously for the first time since late 2023
Higher consumption absorbed a larger share of US base oils flows to Mexico, pointing to steadier import requirements
Rising demand coincided with late-February global supply disruptions, intensifying competition for US base oils
Mexico’s lubricants demand rose in February for the second time in three months, accelerating base oils consumption and increasing the need for replenishment cargoes just as availability tightened and prices surged.
Total lubricants consumption rose to 56,000 kilolitres (49,600 tonnes) in February, up from less than 52,500 kilolitres in January and 6% higher year on year, INEGI data showed.
Higher lubricants demand absorbed a growing share of Mexico’s base oils imports, bringing consumption closer in line with the volume of US shipments to the country.
The same dynamic cut the share of base oils available for other purposes, amplifying the impact of higher demand on import requirements.
Rising consumption coincided with global supply disruptions from end-February, increasing competition across both domestic and overseas markets for US base oils, the source of almost all of Mexico’s imports.
Key Highlights
· Automobile oils consumption rose by 9% and industrial oils demand by 1%, the first simultaneous increase in both categories since late 2023.
· Total lubricants consumption unusually rose in February from January, only the third such increase in nine years.
· Lubricants demand accounted for 46% of US base oils and lubricants exports to Mexico in February, up from 29% in 2025 and close to the highest since January 2023.
· Mexico’s base oils imports accounted for more than 90% of US exports to Mexico, the highest share since March 2022.
Market Repercussions
The growing share of US base oils used for Mexico’s finished lubricants production pointed to more balanced supply-demand fundamentals and steadier import requirements, even if well below the volume seen before mid-2025.
Any sustained pick-up in lubricants demand raised the prospect of larger and more frequent requirements for additional US volumes.
The US market entered February with already-tighter base oils fundamentals even before the global supply disruptions at the end of the month and subsequent surge in diesel price differentials.
Stronger demand from Mexico added to the challenge for US refiners balancing domestic needs and export commitments, while refinery economics favoured maximising motor fuels output.
