Latin America’s lube demand is likely to rise in the coming months amid a seasonal pick-up in consumption.Lube demand is likely to rise to close to 590,000 tonnes in the first three months of the year and hold close to those levels in the second quarter, according to the Baseoilnews short-term outlook.The volume would be up from less than 570,000 tonnes in the fourth quarter of last year.Rising consumption would boost demand for base oils feedstock supplies from both regional and overseas sources.Any such trend would ease further any pressure on US refiners to clear surplus supplies through markets like Mexico and West Africa.Rising consumption in Latin America over the coming months would also mirror a similar trend in other key markets, boosting their demand for base oils supplies as well.The rise in demand in other markets like US and Asia would cut their volume of surplus base oils supplies.The rise in demand would also coincide with a round of plant maintenance work in those markets, adding to the drop in supply.The dynamic boosted the attraction for blenders to line up sufficient supplies earlier, ahead of the prospect of tightening supply-demand fundamentals in the coming months.Concerns about tariffs and their impact on costs, trade flows and end-user demand could complicate any such plans.A more muted round of stock-building would give blenders more flexibility. It would also magnify the impact of tighter market fundamentals.Concerns about tariffs and the need to replenish stocks would boost the attraction of procuring more supplies from more local sources.Signs of any such trend would incentivize regional refiners in markets like Brazil and Argentina to boost base oils output..US Dec base oil exports to S America fall.Asia lube demand to revive in H1 2025.Brazil’s December lube demand rises
