Latin America’s lube demand is likely to fall in the coming months, especially compared with the third quarter of the year, amid a seasonal dip in consumption.The drop in demand would curb the region’s base oils requirements from overseas markets.Lower requirements for base oils imports could complicate the removal of any pick-up in surplus supplies in the US especially.Surplus supplies in the US usually rise at year-end as the country’s domestic demand also faces a seasonal slowdown. A slowdown in demand in the US could begin earlier than usual this year as buyers first consume left-over inventories from the third quarter of the year.Latin America’s lube consumption is likely to dip to less than 560,000 tonnes in the fourth quarter of the year, according to the Baseoilnews short-term outlook.The volume would be down from close to 600,000 tonnes during the previous three months and from more than 615,000 tonnes in the second quarter of the year.Demand is likely to recover in the first three months of next year and extend the recovery in the second quarter.Refiners globally usually face the challenge of minimizing a supply-build at the end of every year in the face of a simultaneous slowdown in demand in all the key markets. Supply typically falls less sharply, leaving a wave of surplus shipments to clear.A slowdown in Latin America’s base oils requirements could be more pronounced this year because of the lack of scheduled plant maintenance work over the coming months.Base oils demand got a boost in the final months of last year, even as lube consumption slowed, as a heavy round of plant maintenance in Brazil cut domestic supply.The drop in output outpaced the fall in demand, triggering a jump in requirements for more base oils supplies from overseas markets..Latin America’s July lube demand rises.Brazil’s August lube demand holds firm.Argentina’s August lube demand falls
