Latin America’s lube demand is likely to rise steadily from the start of next year, boosting the need for additional base oils supplies to meet the pick-up in consumption.The region’s requirements for additional supplies would get a further boost if any build-up of surplus base oils volumes remained relatively small during the fourth quarter of this year.Brazil showed signs of such a scenario at the start of the fourth quarter of the year.Argentina’s move to line up rare base oils cargo volumes to other countries in October also raised the prospect of limiting the size of any supply-build in that market.Latin America’s lube consumption is likely to rise to more than 570,000 tonnes in the first three months of next year, according to the Baseoilnews short-term outlook.Demand is likely to extend that rise to more than 590,000 tonnes during the second quarter of the year.The volume would be up from around 550,000 tonnes during the fourth quarter of this year, with consumption likely bottoming out in the month of December.Latin America could face the challenge of clearing surplus supplies even if it starts the new year with relatively balanced supply-demand fundamentals.The region saw a similar pick-up in demand at the start of the year in each of the previous five years.A pick-up in base oils output in Brazil and a surge in US base oils shipments to the region at the start of this year more than outweighed the rise in demand.The rise in output and shipments triggered a large build-up of surplus supplies and a subsequent drop in US base oils exports to the region from the end of the first quarter of the year..Brazil’s Oct lube demand holds steady.Argentina’s October lube demand falls.Latin America Sept lube demand falls.Asia’s lube demand likely to revive from mid-Q1 2025
