Latin America’s lube demand edged up in November for a second month from year-earlier levels, but barely slowed a seasonal dip in consumption at the end of the year.A drop in base oils supply from within the region and from the US more than balanced out the seasonal fall in consumption.The dynamic left supply-demand fundamentals relatively balanced in the final quarter of the year and raised the prospect of steady requirements for base oils supplies at the start of this year.Steady demand for base oils supplies could provide more limited support for shipments from the US as firm output within Latin America covers more of its requirements.The region’s lube consumption of around 190,000 tonnes in November rose by 1% from year-earlier levels, government data showed.Demand held firm because of a pick-up in consumption in Brazil. The pace of the drop in Argentina’s lube consumption also slowed sharply.But Mexico’s lube demand resumed its fall amid a steep slide in industrial oils consumption.The region’s weak demand did little to cushion a seasonal fall in consumption from more than 200,000 tonnes in October.The region’s base oils supply fell even more sharply in November from October, curbing any supply-build.Total base oils output combined with US exports to the region fell to less than 192,000 tonnes in November, from more than 220,000 tonnes the previous month.Supply still rose by 3% in November and for the third time in four months from year-earlier levels.Supply rose from year-earlier levels as rebounding output more than countered a sustained dip in US exports to the region.The sharper fall in supply from October still cut the surplus of supply over demand to less than 2,000 tonnes in November, from more than 21,000 tonnes the previous month.A smaller surplus raised the prospect of speeding up buyers’ moves to replenish stocks early this year in preparation for a seasonal rise in consumption later in the first quarter.Regional refiners were likely to be the main beneficiaries of such moves.Any significant rise in US exports to the region by contrast raised the prospect of triggering a large build-up of surplus supplies.Such an outcome would repeat a similar supply-build during the first few months of last year..Brazil’s Nov base oils supply exceeds demand.Argentina’s Nov base oils supply lags demand
