Brazil’s Oct lube demand holds steady

Brazil’s lube demand held firm in October, supporting steady requirements for large volumes of base oils supplies at the start of the fourth quarter of the year.

The country’s base oils imports by contrast showed signs of falling sharply in October from the previous month.

The disconnect between steady demand and lower imports raised the prospect of leaving a supply shortfall at the start of the fourth quarter.

Any such shortfall would help to balance out the impact of a typical seasonal slowdown in lube consumption during the final two months of the year.

Lube consumption among Brazil’s nine largest blenders came to 104,000 cubic meters (92,000 tonnes) in October, according to IBP.

The volume rose by 2% and for a seventh straight month from year-earlier levels.

But the pace of the rise in demand remained low for a third month, after consumption rose by 7% in the first seven months of the year.

That strong demand growth helped to support relatively steady lube consumption in the Latin America market during that period.

Latin America’s lube demand then fell in August and September, with Brazil’s more muted consumption growth insufficient to balance out shrinking demand in markets like Mexico and Argentina.

The weaker demand in the region raised the prospect of deepening a seasonal slowdown in lube consumption in the fourth quarter, and a larger fall in its base oils requirements in response.

A slump in Brazil's base oils imports in October suggested that scenario was already materialising.

Shipments of less than 40,000 tonnes in October fell from more than 90,000 tonnes the previous month, provisional customs data showed.

The September volume was the highest in nine months and triggered a sharp rise in Brazil’s surplus base oils supply that month.

The October imports were the lowest in more than two years. They also likely helped to balance out the previous month’s supply-build.

The dynamic would leave Brazil’s supply-demand fundamentals relatively balanced heading into the final two months of the year.