Brazil’s base oils imports surged to a 19-month high in October, raising the prospect of a repeat of the country’s large supply-build at the end of last year.Brazil’s supply-demand fundamentals had remained relatively balanced for the last ten months to September.Lower domestic base oils output and a drop in imports had helped to balance out a steady slowdown in lube demand.Base oils output held steady in October at relatively low levels, especially compared with last year..Brazil’s Oct base oil output holds steady.The surge in imports in October broke the trend.It highlighted the availability of large volumes of surplus base oils in other regions and the competitive prices for those supplies.The end of the Atlantic hurricane season also incentivized US producers to cut supplies that they had held as a buffer against weather-related disruptions. The prospect of a seasonal slowdown in US demand at year-end added to moves to trim stocks.Any further rise in Brazil’s base oils imports during the last two months of the year raised the prospect of putting pressure on domestic production and on more regular shipments from overseas suppliers.The November import volume showed signs of falling from the previous month.Imports of 108,100mᶟ (95,750t) in October rose from 71,450mᶟ the previous month to the highest since March 2021, government data showed..Imports in September had already got a boost from the arrival of arbitrage shipments from markets like Greece and South Korea. The October supplies included a cargo from Spain.The October volume exceeded the 100,000 mᶟ/month level for the first time this year. It exceeded that level six times in 2021, including three times in the last four months of the year.The rise in shipments lifted Brazil’s total supply, or output plus imports, to more than 160,000mᶟ in October.The volume was the highest in a year and outpaced domestic and overseas demand by more than more than 65,000mᶟ. That volume was itself the highest since November 2021 and up from average levels of less than 13,000 mᶟ/month in the first nine months of the year..Argentina Oct base oils supply rises
