· US Group II base oils price-premium to vacuum gasoil (VGO) holds firm..· Firm price-premium vs VGO contrasts with falling price-premium this time a year ago.· Firm price-premium incentivizes refiners to maintain or raise output.· Any such moves could magnify pick-up in supply following expected completion of Group II plant-maintenance work in H1 Nov 2025..· US’ firm Group II export prices relative to domestic prices could reflect more limited volume of surplus supply.· US' firm Group II export prices could instead reflect even higher prices in overseas markets like Europe and India..· Higher prices in overseas markets sustain arbitrage opportunities without need for further fall in US export prices.· Regular flow of US shipments to India in recent months points to such a trend.· Dynamic would change if prices in overseas markets fell more sharply.· Any such sharp fall in prices in overseas markets looks unlikely for now, especially for light grades.· US Group III base oils supply set to get boost from arrival of wave of shipments from Bahrain in late-Nov 2025 and early-Dec 2025.· Pick-up in cargo flows from Middle East contrasts with slowdown in shipments from South Korea to US in recent weeks..· Latin America’s base oils supply shows more mixed signals.· Brazil’s base oils supply recovers in Sept 2025 as rebound in imports cushions impact of extended slowdown in domestic output..· Dynamic highlights importance of imports in covering most of Brazil’s base oils requirements.· Imports account for close to 60% of Brazil’s supply in Q3 2025 and in year to September..· Any extension of recent drop in domestic output into Q4 2025 could increase Brazil's reliance on imports to meet requirements.· Any such pick-up in requirements could help to remove surplus supplies from US.· Any such pick-up in requirements could also be muted as buyers aim to maintain lower stocks.· Any such pick-up in requirements could also be muted in view of limited fall in Brazil’s base oils output..· Argentina’s base oils supply rises in Sept 2025 to highest in almost four years..· Rise in supply mostly reflects surge in arrival of shipments from US in Sept 2025, triggering jump in imports..· Surge in shipments from US to Brazil and Argentina helps to clear surplus volumes from US in Aug 2025.· Repeat of that wave of shipments, at least to Argentina, could be harder as the country first works down its high stocks..· Europe’s base oils supply likely to be readily available in face of muted demand, limited arbitrage opportunities and recovery in Group III flows from Middle East.· Size of Group I surplus supply could be more manageable following signs of recent removal of some of those volumes, as well as unexpected production issues.· Singapore takes delivery in past week of unusually large shipment of base oils from Europe..· Arrival of shipment at end-Oct 2025 suggests it left Europe around mid-Sept 2025.· Shipment consists mostly of Group I base oils. · Supplies originate from several different and infrequent sources, including Poland.· Shipment moves to Singapore despite start-up of new unit in the island-state in Sept 2025..· Europe's Group III base oils supply could be more mixed.· Recent or imminent arrival of shipments from Middle East contrast with slowdown in cargoes from Spain to northwest Europe in recent weeks.· Spain’s premium-grade base oils exports to northwest Europe fall to four-month low in Oct 2025..· Dip in flows coincides with signs of slowdown or pause in shipments from Indonesia to Europe in Oct 2025..· Nigeria’s base oils supply likely to get a boost as growing wave of Group I shipments heads to or reaches the country.· Shipments include cargoes from US, Argentina and southern Europe, with most of the volume set to arrive in the coming weeks.· Shipments would help to replenish depleted stocks after slowdown in flows to Nigeria in Q3 2025..Argentina Sept base oils supply exceeds demand.Brazil’s Sept base oils supply matches demand
