· US base oils price premium to VGO/heating oil prices holds steadier after surging in H1 April 2025.· Firmer margins and steady prices coincide with signs of slowdown in shipments to markets like West Africa in April 2025.· Firmer margins and steadier prices coincide with steadier US Group II price discount to imported cargo prices in markets like India..· Firmer margins, steadier prices and slowdown in shipments could reflect more limited surplus supply in domestic market.· Scenario would correspond with typical trend for the time of year, when seasonal pick-up in demand and plant maintenance tighten supply-demand fundamentals.· Even so, pace of rise in margins remains more muted than in early Q2 2024.· US Group II discount to CFR India prices remains much wider than year-earlier levels.· Dynamic suggests any supply tightness is more muted than year-earlier levels.· Any availability of surplus supplies could also face more competition for outlets like India and Middle East amid expected pick-up in availability in Asia..· US Group III base oils supply could see larger impact than Europe from plant maintenance work in Middle East in Q2 2025.· Imports from Bahrain/UAE account for 24% of US’ Group III base oils imports in Jan-Feb 2025 and in 2024.· Imports from Bahrain/UAE account for 18% share of Europe’s Group III supply in Jan-Feb 2025 and 16% share in 2024..· Dynamic highlights US’ reliance on imports for almost all its Group III base oils, and subsequent exposure to factors such as maintenance work impacting supply from those overseas sources.· Shipments from South Korea to US show signs of slowing in April 2025 from previous month.· Slowdown raises prospect of dip in US imports from South Korea in April-May 2025.· Any such dip in shipments could compound any slowdown in supplies from Middle East..· Argentina’s base oils output rises to twenty-month high in March 2025..· Higher output in March 2025 and Q1 2025 far outpaces improvement in domestic demand.· Higher output cuts requirements for base oils imports, which fall in Q1 2025 to lowest since H2 2020..· Firm output and lower imports mirror similar trend in Brazil late last year and early this year.· Dynamic points to rising self-sufficiency in two of South America’s largest markets.· Argentina’s rising output also provides surplus volumes to tap tight global supply and high prices for Group I base oils.· Even subtracting exports from total supply, Argentina’s base oils imports still account for less than half the country’s base oils supply in Q1 2025 for fifth straight quarter..· Trend suggests Argentina has sufficient production capacity and incentive to cover larger share of demand in domestic and overseas markets..· Europe’s base oils supply likely to stay mixed, with limited spot availability of Group I supplies and healthy availability of premium-grade base oils.· Tighter availability of Group I base oils keeps more supply within the region, curbing spot volumes for overseas markets.· Any plant maintenance work compounds that dynamic.· Greece and Hungary’s combined exports to markets in Europe account for more than 65% of their total exports in Jan-Feb 2025 , up from 42% share during same period a year earlier..· Dwindling exports and spot shipments force buyers in overseas markets to turn instead to less regular sources like Argentina for additional volumes..· Europe’s Group II base oils supply shows signs of staying readily available.· Europe’s widening Group II premium to prices in US and Asia could attract more supplies to the region.· Higher imports would add to signs of firm regional production.· Europe’s Group II base oils imports rise to four-month high and surge vs year-earlier levels in Feb 2025..· Imports could get further support from prospect of improving availability of supply in Asia in coming weeks.· Even without direct arbitrage cargoes, rising supply in Asia could force shipments from other markets to target other outlets like Europe. .· Europe’s Group III base oils supply could face more muted impact of plant maintenance work in Middle East in Q2 2025 as its large number of sources cut its reliance on any one refinery.· Europe’s steady Group III base oils supply in Jan-Feb 2025 reflects that dynamic, contrasting with ongoing volatility of US supplies..· Singapore’s base oils exports to UAE rise sharply since mid-2024..· Shipments consist of re-exports of supplies from other sources rather than supplies originating from Singapore.· Any re-exports of supplies originating from sources in Asia would tap logistical convenience of shipping from Singapore.· Logistical convenience is less clear for any re-exports of supplies originating from other sources.· Any such re-exports of supplies originating from other sources point to other factors driving such moves..Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 April.Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 April.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 April.Argentina’s March base oils supply rises.Singapore’s March base oils exports rise
· US base oils price premium to VGO/heating oil prices holds steadier after surging in H1 April 2025.· Firmer margins and steady prices coincide with signs of slowdown in shipments to markets like West Africa in April 2025.· Firmer margins and steadier prices coincide with steadier US Group II price discount to imported cargo prices in markets like India..· Firmer margins, steadier prices and slowdown in shipments could reflect more limited surplus supply in domestic market.· Scenario would correspond with typical trend for the time of year, when seasonal pick-up in demand and plant maintenance tighten supply-demand fundamentals.· Even so, pace of rise in margins remains more muted than in early Q2 2024.· US Group II discount to CFR India prices remains much wider than year-earlier levels.· Dynamic suggests any supply tightness is more muted than year-earlier levels.· Any availability of surplus supplies could also face more competition for outlets like India and Middle East amid expected pick-up in availability in Asia..· US Group III base oils supply could see larger impact than Europe from plant maintenance work in Middle East in Q2 2025.· Imports from Bahrain/UAE account for 24% of US’ Group III base oils imports in Jan-Feb 2025 and in 2024.· Imports from Bahrain/UAE account for 18% share of Europe’s Group III supply in Jan-Feb 2025 and 16% share in 2024..· Dynamic highlights US’ reliance on imports for almost all its Group III base oils, and subsequent exposure to factors such as maintenance work impacting supply from those overseas sources.· Shipments from South Korea to US show signs of slowing in April 2025 from previous month.· Slowdown raises prospect of dip in US imports from South Korea in April-May 2025.· Any such dip in shipments could compound any slowdown in supplies from Middle East..· Argentina’s base oils output rises to twenty-month high in March 2025..· Higher output in March 2025 and Q1 2025 far outpaces improvement in domestic demand.· Higher output cuts requirements for base oils imports, which fall in Q1 2025 to lowest since H2 2020..· Firm output and lower imports mirror similar trend in Brazil late last year and early this year.· Dynamic points to rising self-sufficiency in two of South America’s largest markets.· Argentina’s rising output also provides surplus volumes to tap tight global supply and high prices for Group I base oils.· Even subtracting exports from total supply, Argentina’s base oils imports still account for less than half the country’s base oils supply in Q1 2025 for fifth straight quarter..· Trend suggests Argentina has sufficient production capacity and incentive to cover larger share of demand in domestic and overseas markets..· Europe’s base oils supply likely to stay mixed, with limited spot availability of Group I supplies and healthy availability of premium-grade base oils.· Tighter availability of Group I base oils keeps more supply within the region, curbing spot volumes for overseas markets.· Any plant maintenance work compounds that dynamic.· Greece and Hungary’s combined exports to markets in Europe account for more than 65% of their total exports in Jan-Feb 2025 , up from 42% share during same period a year earlier..· Dwindling exports and spot shipments force buyers in overseas markets to turn instead to less regular sources like Argentina for additional volumes..· Europe’s Group II base oils supply shows signs of staying readily available.· Europe’s widening Group II premium to prices in US and Asia could attract more supplies to the region.· Higher imports would add to signs of firm regional production.· Europe’s Group II base oils imports rise to four-month high and surge vs year-earlier levels in Feb 2025..· Imports could get further support from prospect of improving availability of supply in Asia in coming weeks.· Even without direct arbitrage cargoes, rising supply in Asia could force shipments from other markets to target other outlets like Europe. .· Europe’s Group III base oils supply could face more muted impact of plant maintenance work in Middle East in Q2 2025 as its large number of sources cut its reliance on any one refinery.· Europe’s steady Group III base oils supply in Jan-Feb 2025 reflects that dynamic, contrasting with ongoing volatility of US supplies..· Singapore’s base oils exports to UAE rise sharply since mid-2024..· Shipments consist of re-exports of supplies from other sources rather than supplies originating from Singapore.· Any re-exports of supplies originating from sources in Asia would tap logistical convenience of shipping from Singapore.· Logistical convenience is less clear for any re-exports of supplies originating from other sources.· Any such re-exports of supplies originating from other sources point to other factors driving such moves..Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 28 April.Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 28 April.Global base oils arb outlook: Week of 28 April.Argentina’s March base oils supply rises.Singapore’s March base oils exports rise
