· US base oils supply shows signs of staying at sufficient levels despite plant maintenance work, seasonal rise in demand and slump in imports in Feb 2025.· Ongoing flow of shipments to West Africa reflects persistent availability of surplus volumes.· US base oils prices surge relative to feedstock and heating oil prices in April 2025.· Supply could get further boost from growing incentive for refiners to maximise base oils output in response to higher margins.· Any moves to boost output could add to subsequent pick-up in supply following completion of plant maintenance work and likely slowdown in demand at end of second quarter of the year.· Higher supply would sustain need for base oils exports to remain at elevated levels to avoid build-up of surplus volumes..· US base oils/lube exports rise to four-month high in Feb 2025..· Higher-than-usual exports include surge in shipments to India and Israel, in addition to still-high volumes to Mexico and Nigeria.· Destination of shipments points to focus on removing surplus volumes.· US Group II heavy-grade export prices maintain steep discount to prices in Asia so far in Q2 2025 despite removal of surplus volumes.· US export price-discount points to ongoing surplus volumes to clear, and subsequent need to maintain prices at levels that facilitate arbitrage shipments.· Recent market volatility could complicate arbitrage shipments to more distant markets as buyers shun exposure to increased uncertainty and risk.· Such a scenario would boost importance of Mexico especially as outlet for surplus volumes. .· US base oils imports get boost from arrival of several large shipments in H1 April 2025 and pick-up in shipments in March 2025.· Rise in shipments follows slump in imports to multi-year low in Feb 2025..· Unusually steep slowdown partly reflects slump in shipments from South Korea..· Supplies from South Korea could remain more volatile over coming months because of scheduled plant maintenance work.· Group III supply could face further impact from plant maintenance work in Canada and Middle East in Q2 2025..· Europe’s base oils supply likely to stay more mixed.· Europe’s surplus Group I base oils supply likely to stay limited in face of seasonal pick-up in demand, plant maintenance and signs of smaller build-up during winter months.· Italy’s base oils output slumps in Feb 2025 from Jan 2025 to second-lowest level in twenty months..· Size of drop in output points to production issues such as plant maintenance work.· Sonatrach’s Augusta refinery in Italy undergoes extensive maintenance work from H2 Jan 2025 to end-April 2025, La Gazzetta reports, citing the company.· Refinery shutdown suggests Italy’s base oils output likely stays low in March-April 2025, with resumption of normal production from May 2025.· Tighter supply supports firm Group I prices, boosting attraction for suppliers in other markets to ship more Group I base oils to Europe.· US exports large cargo of Group I base oils to Europe in Feb 2025, reflecting that dynamic.· Another cargo loads from US in early April 2025 before heading to Europe..· Turkey’s Group I base oils imports from Russia fall to three-month low in Feb 2025, while shipments from Europe rise..· Drop in supplies from Russia coincides with narrowing gap between prices for Turkey's imports from Russia and from Europe..· Price-gap remains unusually wide, sustaining incentive to maximize imports from Russia and to export shipments from Turkey to Europe.· Pause in such shipments from Turkey to Europe since start of this year coincided with stoppage of Turkey’s Group I base oils unit at end-2024 and early this year..· Europe’s Group II base oils supply likely to hold steady and readily available.· Downward pressure on Europe’s Group II base oils prices points to healthy availability even with supplies from US holding in narrow range.· US base oils exports to Europe hold relatively steady in Feb 2025 for fourth month..· Steady exports to Europe contrast with surge in US shipments to other markets like India.· Steady shipments help to avoid major supply-build in Europe, curbing pressure on prices in that market.· Europe’s base oils supplies from US likely to continue to hold steady even with plant maintenance work in the US.· Pick-up in shipments from District of San Francisco to Europe since end-2024 balances out slowdown in supplies from District of Mobile..· Europe’s Group III base oils supply could get boost from more competitive prices vs Asia markets like China. .· Improvement in Europe Group III price vs China prices coincides with surge in that country’s Group III base oils output, curbing requirements from overseas markets.· Europe also sees pick-up in premium-grade shipments from Spain in April 2025..US’ February base oils imports fall.US’ Feb base oils exports to Europe fall.China’s March base oils output rises.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 April.Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 14 April
· US base oils supply shows signs of staying at sufficient levels despite plant maintenance work, seasonal rise in demand and slump in imports in Feb 2025.· Ongoing flow of shipments to West Africa reflects persistent availability of surplus volumes.· US base oils prices surge relative to feedstock and heating oil prices in April 2025.· Supply could get further boost from growing incentive for refiners to maximise base oils output in response to higher margins.· Any moves to boost output could add to subsequent pick-up in supply following completion of plant maintenance work and likely slowdown in demand at end of second quarter of the year.· Higher supply would sustain need for base oils exports to remain at elevated levels to avoid build-up of surplus volumes..· US base oils/lube exports rise to four-month high in Feb 2025..· Higher-than-usual exports include surge in shipments to India and Israel, in addition to still-high volumes to Mexico and Nigeria.· Destination of shipments points to focus on removing surplus volumes.· US Group II heavy-grade export prices maintain steep discount to prices in Asia so far in Q2 2025 despite removal of surplus volumes.· US export price-discount points to ongoing surplus volumes to clear, and subsequent need to maintain prices at levels that facilitate arbitrage shipments.· Recent market volatility could complicate arbitrage shipments to more distant markets as buyers shun exposure to increased uncertainty and risk.· Such a scenario would boost importance of Mexico especially as outlet for surplus volumes. .· US base oils imports get boost from arrival of several large shipments in H1 April 2025 and pick-up in shipments in March 2025.· Rise in shipments follows slump in imports to multi-year low in Feb 2025..· Unusually steep slowdown partly reflects slump in shipments from South Korea..· Supplies from South Korea could remain more volatile over coming months because of scheduled plant maintenance work.· Group III supply could face further impact from plant maintenance work in Canada and Middle East in Q2 2025..· Europe’s base oils supply likely to stay more mixed.· Europe’s surplus Group I base oils supply likely to stay limited in face of seasonal pick-up in demand, plant maintenance and signs of smaller build-up during winter months.· Italy’s base oils output slumps in Feb 2025 from Jan 2025 to second-lowest level in twenty months..· Size of drop in output points to production issues such as plant maintenance work.· Sonatrach’s Augusta refinery in Italy undergoes extensive maintenance work from H2 Jan 2025 to end-April 2025, La Gazzetta reports, citing the company.· Refinery shutdown suggests Italy’s base oils output likely stays low in March-April 2025, with resumption of normal production from May 2025.· Tighter supply supports firm Group I prices, boosting attraction for suppliers in other markets to ship more Group I base oils to Europe.· US exports large cargo of Group I base oils to Europe in Feb 2025, reflecting that dynamic.· Another cargo loads from US in early April 2025 before heading to Europe..· Turkey’s Group I base oils imports from Russia fall to three-month low in Feb 2025, while shipments from Europe rise..· Drop in supplies from Russia coincides with narrowing gap between prices for Turkey's imports from Russia and from Europe..· Price-gap remains unusually wide, sustaining incentive to maximize imports from Russia and to export shipments from Turkey to Europe.· Pause in such shipments from Turkey to Europe since start of this year coincided with stoppage of Turkey’s Group I base oils unit at end-2024 and early this year..· Europe’s Group II base oils supply likely to hold steady and readily available.· Downward pressure on Europe’s Group II base oils prices points to healthy availability even with supplies from US holding in narrow range.· US base oils exports to Europe hold relatively steady in Feb 2025 for fourth month..· Steady exports to Europe contrast with surge in US shipments to other markets like India.· Steady shipments help to avoid major supply-build in Europe, curbing pressure on prices in that market.· Europe’s base oils supplies from US likely to continue to hold steady even with plant maintenance work in the US.· Pick-up in shipments from District of San Francisco to Europe since end-2024 balances out slowdown in supplies from District of Mobile..· Europe’s Group III base oils supply could get boost from more competitive prices vs Asia markets like China. .· Improvement in Europe Group III price vs China prices coincides with surge in that country’s Group III base oils output, curbing requirements from overseas markets.· Europe also sees pick-up in premium-grade shipments from Spain in April 2025..US’ February base oils imports fall.US’ Feb base oils exports to Europe fall.China’s March base oils output rises.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 14 April.Global base oils margins outlook: Week of 14 April
