Subscribe
- Home
- About Us
- Newsletter
- Americas
- EMEA
- Asia
- Market Signals
- Companies
- News
Exports fell to a two-year low in January as tighter supply in Europe and US shipments to other markets cut surplus flows to Africa
The shortfall reduced Africa's supply buffer ahead of the Middle East-driven disruptions
Markets more reliant on spot cargoes are likely to face greater exposure as refiners prioritise term commitments
Global base oils exports to key markets in Africa fell to a two-year low in January, leaving markets such as Nigeria and South Africa more exposed to the supply disruptions that began in late February.
Total exports to Egypt, Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya fell to around 42,000 tonnes in January, down from more than 100,000 tonnes in December and the lowest since November 2023, Eurostat, Census Bureau, Korea Customs data and other government data showed.
Exports to Africa typically rise around the turn of the year as refiners in Europe and the US move surplus volumes to the region.
Flows were lower than usual this time amid tighter supply fundamentals in Europe and a shift in US export flows toward Europe and South America.
The smaller inflow reduced the region’s supply buffer, leaving it more exposed to further disruption as seasonal demand in the US and Europe, alongside conflict in the Middle East, cut surplus availability.
Key Highlights
· Total exports fell to less than 205,000 tonnes in the three months to January, down from almost 300,000 tonnes a year earlier and the lowest for that period in five years.
· US exports fell to a two-year low, with the pause in flows following a surge in December contrasting with sustained shipments a year earlier.
· Europe’s exports fell to less than 40,000 tonnes, the lowest in ten months and contrasting with a surge in shipments at the start of 2025.
· Kenya and Nigeria faced the largest fall in shipments from December, while exports to Egypt rose to a five-month high.
Market Repercussions
More US cargoes moved to Nigeria in February and March, with the shipments likely arranged before the start of the Middle East conflict.
Even with those cargoes, the lower-than-usual export volumes to African markets at the turn of the year were likely to bring forward the impact of the supply disruptions.
The effect was likely to be more pronounced in markets more reliant on spot cargoes as overseas refiners prioritised term commitments.
Such a slowdown could increase the region’s reliance on shipments from Europe, despite tighter supply fundamentals in that market.
