Global base oils exports to key markets in Africa rose to a three-month high in April on the back of a rebound in shipments from the US and Saudi Arabia.That trend showed signs of waning in the month of May, leaving those markets more reliant on supplies from Europe.Europe’s shrinking structural base oils production capacity in turn boosted the incentive for buyers in markets like Africa to line up more supplies from other sources.Total base oils exports to Egypt, Nigeria, South Africa and Kenya combined rose to more than 85,000 tonnes in April, from close to 55,000 tonnes the previous month, government data showed.The pick-up in exports mostly reflected a rise in shipments to South Africa from the US and Saudi Arabia.Exports of more than 17,000 tonnes from the US to South Africa in April were highest in more than four years.The volume was up from typical levels of around 8,000 tonnes/month in 2023.An extension of that rise in shipments showed little sign of extending into May.More balanced supply-demand fundamentals and higher prices in the US in the second quarter of the year curbed the need and opportunity to move more arbitrage shipments to markets like Africa.There were also no shipments from Saudi Arabia to South Africa in May.A slowdown in flows from the US could also extend a drop in global base oils exports to Nigeria.Exports to the West African country held at less than 15,000 tonnes in April for a second month, with almost no supplies from the US.The volume was down from close to 30,000 tonnes/month in 2023.The pick-up in shipments from markets like US and Saudi Arabia in April cut Europe’s share of base oils exports to key African markets to around 55% of the total.The share was down from more than 80% of the total in March and from more than 60% of the total in 2023.A drop in shipments from sources like US and Saudi Arabia through the rest of the second quarter would in turn boost African countries' reliance on supplies from Europe.That reliance, and the irregular flows from other sources, left buyers facing a growing risk of supply disruptions as Europe’s structural base oils supply continued to tighten..US’ April base oils exports rise.Global base oils exports to Mideast Gulf fall in April
