India’s lube demand rose in November for the seventh time in eight months, keeping pressure on blenders to sustain high base oils imports to cover requirements.Total lube consumption of 367,000 tonnes in November rose from 357,000 tonnes the previous month and by 4% from year-earlier levels, government data showed.Persistently firm lube consumption curbed blenders’ ability to build larger base oils inventories in the face of a sustained dip in India’s domestic base oils output and lower imports compared with end-2023.At the same time, India’s imported light-grade base oils cargo prices held relatively steady compared with FOB Asia cargo prices since August.The steady price levels kept the arbitrage more marginal and pointed to muted interest in building larger stocks.Buyers’ comfort with existing stock levels in turn suggested that they were confident that they could secure sufficient supplies as and when required to cover the sustained rise in domestic lube demand.The moves also gave buyers the flexibility to procure larger volumes if they deemed prices to be at more competitive levels.The sustained rise in demand and drop in supply throughout most of this year is unlikely to repeat itself next year.The disconnect left supply tighter than usual throughout the year but still sufficient to cover requirements.Supply is instead likely to rise in the coming year following the scheduled start-up of new base oils production capacity in the country.Supply from overseas markets is also likely to get a boost following the planned start-up of additional capacity in southeast Asia in the coming year.The prospect of supply keeping pace with or outpacing demand growth in the coming year added to the attraction for blenders to maintain sufficient rather than high base oils stocks..India’s Oct base oils supply lags demand .India’s October base oils imports mixed.Base Oil News stories and analysis also available on ICIS platform
