India’s base oils supply exceeded demand in July, partially reversing a shortfall the previous month and enabling blenders to replenish low stocks.An expected seasonal dip in lube consumption in the month of August could extend the opportunity for blenders to build larger inventories.Any such moves could be limited amid signs of a recent slowdown in base oils exports from Asia to India.The drop in shipments could curb India’s base oils supply in August and balance out the impact of any slowdown in demand.Such a scenario could leave blenders with balanced-to-tight stocks ahead of a typical seasonal pick-up in lube consumption from the end of the third quarter of the year.India’s supply rose in July on the back of a jump in base oils imports to a fourteen-month high.The country’s base oils output climbed to a four-month high of 118,000 tonnes, adding to the rise in supply.Output rose following the completion of an extended round of plant-maintenance work that began early this year.Total supply, or output and imports combined, duly rose to more than 500,000 tonnes in July..The volume rose from around 450,000 tonnes the previous month to the highest since May 2024.India’s total demand, or total consumption and exports combined, came to more than 480,000 tonnes in July, down from more than 520,000 tonnes the previous month..Higher supply and lower demand triggered a rise in surplus volumes that was the largest in eight months.But it was smaller than the supply-shortfall in June that was the largest in ten months.The dynamic likely left blenders with inventories that remained relatively low even with the opportunity to replenish stocks in July.The prospect of stocks staying relatively low at end-August could support ongoing demand for additional shipments from overseas sources at a time when surplus-supply in those markets shows signs of rising..India’s July lube demand rises.India’s July base oils imports rise.Base Oil News stories and analysis also available on ICIS platform
