India’s base oils imports fell to a four-month low in December amid a slowdown in shipments from the Middle East and a sustained pause in arbitrage flows from the US.The country’s total base oils imports of little more than 300,000 tonnes in December fell from almost 325,000 tonnes the previous month and by 9% from year-earlier levels, provisional customs data showed.The drop in total imports from November contrasted with a rise in shipments of very-light grade base oils to more than 125,000 tonnes in December.Excluding very-light-grade base oils, India’s imports of less than 180,000 tonnes in December fell to the lowest since early 2023.Signs of a recovery in domestic base oils production late last year cushioned the slowdown.But India’s lube demand extended its strong growth in December, keeping supply tight.A seasonal pick-up in lube demand in the first quarter of this year is likely to sustain requirements for higher volumes of base oils supplies.An expected rise in India’s base oils production capacity this year is likely to arrive too late to cover the higher requirements during that period.Firm domestic demand early this year and squeezed supply at the end of last year duly raised the prospect of ongoing requirements for additional shipments from overseas markets.Firmer-than usual base oils prices in Asia-Pacific late last year and early this year cut the attraction of securing additional supplies from that region.Lower US export prices by contrast boosted the feasibility of locking in surplus volumes from that market.A jump in US base oils exports to India during the final months of last year reflected that dynamic.Some of those shipments are set to reach India this month.Any such rise in flows would contrast with a sustained dearth of arbitrage shipments from the US to India during the second half of last year.India’s base oils imports from the US held at less than 4,000 tonnes in December for a second month. The supplies again consisted almost completely of naphthenic base oils.The low volumes cut India’s total imports from the US to less than 18,000 tonnes in the final quarter of last year, down from almost 50,000 tonnes in the fourth quarter of 2023..Taiwan’s Dec base oils exports hold firm.India’s Dec lube demand extends rise
