· Global base oils prices mostly weaken vs higher feedstock/competing fuel prices.· Lower prices of light-grade base oils relative to heavy-neutrals leave those supplies more exposed to impact of higher feedstock costs at a time when demand faces seasonal rise..· FOB Asia base oils prices fall vs Singapore gasoil..· Group I/II light-grade base oils price premium to gasoil slips to levels that cut attraction of producing more of those supplies. · Light-grade premium falls at a time of year when it typically rises.· Light-grade premium stays low even with ongoing round of plant maintenance and seasonally-firmer demand..· Domestic China Group II N150 premium to Shandong diesel prices extends rise to highest since early-Jan 2025..· Rising N150 premium to diesel in March 2025 follows similar trend in March 2024; premium then peaked in early May 2024.· Premium rises at time of year when lube consumption typically gets seasonal boost.· Rising premium coincides with domestic plant maintenance work.· Rising N150 premium contrasts with more rangebound N500 premium to Shandong diesel in March 2025..· CFR India Group II N70 premium to Singapore gasoil price edges lower, holds close to highest since end-Q3 2024..· Firm premium facilitates arbitrage to move more very-light grades to India, incentivizes regional refiners to boost supply of very-light grade base oils.· Rebounding premium in Feb-March 2025 follows slump in India’s imports of very-light grade base oils in Feb 2025 to lowest since Q3 2023..· Europe’s domestic brightstock price premium to VGO edges higher..· Rising premium contrasts with lower price premium to VGO for all other base oils grades.· Trend reflects sustained outperformance of brightstock vs other Group I and premium-grade base oils and vs other regions.· Sustained brightstock price-strength points to structural supply shortfall until demand eases or availability improves in other regions..· US Group II export price-premium to VGO continues to stay in narrow range so far this year..· Steady base oils premium contrasts with slump in premium in early-2024, before rebound in premium from H2 March 2024 to end-Q3 2024.· Premium rebounds from H2 March 2024 in response to tighter supply-demand fundamentals from end-Q1 2024.· Any repeat of those price dynamics in coming weeks would point to similar tightening of supply-demand fundamentals.· Lack of any such repeat of those price dynamics in coming weeks would point to supply-demand fundamentals that are different from this time last year..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 24 March.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 24 March
