· Global base oils prices face more pressure versus feedstock/competing fuel prices, especially for light grades, and especially in Asia.· Heavy-grade price-premium to feedstock/competing fuel prices also faces more pressure in Asia than in other markets.· Dynamic increases prospect of any adjustments in output taking place in Asia ahead of other markets..· FOB Asia base oils price premium to Singapore gasoil extends fall..· FOB Asia Group II heavy-grade price-premium to gasoil falls back to still-high levels in Q3 2024.· FOB Asia Group II light-grade premium to gasoil falls well below levels in most of Q2 2025 and in Q3 2024.· FOB Asia Group I light-grade price falls to discount to gasoil.· Lower price-differentials, and firm diesel premium to crude, boost incentive for refiners to trim output of light grades..· China’s domestic Group II light-grade base oils price premium to Shandong diesel price stays weak and in narrow range..· Base oils premium stays well below year-earlier levels.· Weak premium incentivizes refiners to trim base oils output, at same time as arbitrage to move cargoes to China gets less feasible.· Dynamic points to more muted demand that requires less supply..· CFR India Group II N70 premium to Singapore gasoil extends fall..· Price-premium stays well below levels in Q2 2025 and in Q3 2024.· Lower premium partly reflects relative strength of regional gasoil prices.· Premium remains at level that keeps open arbitrage to move very-light-grade base oils to India.· But downward trend, and lower premium vs Q2 2025, could incentivize refiners to reconsider production plans..· Europe’s Group II light-grade price-premium to vacuum gasoil (VGO) falls, contrasting with steadier domestic Group I light-grade premium to VGO..· Group II light-grade premium to VGO stays unusually firm even after falling in H1 July 2025.· Group I light-grade premium to VGO holds steadier even amid expectations of improving Group I supply as plant-maintenance ends.· Any extension of this recent trend could point to Group II price-premium getting support from Group I supply-tightness in Q2 2025, and that support now unwinding as Group I supply improves..· US Group II export-price premium to VGO extends fall, contrasts with steadier domestic price-premium..· Weaker export-price premium leaves price-differential in relatively narrow but still-firm range since late-2024.· Weaker export-price premium contrasts with surging price-premium in Q3 2024, falling premium in Q3 2023.· More range-bound export-price premium points to relatively manageable supply-demand fundamentals that sustain incentive for refiners to maintain output levels..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 21 July.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 21 July
