· Base oils prices extend rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices in Asia and Europe, pointing to tighter supply-demand fundamentals.· US base oils premium to VGO/heating oil stays in narrower range, lagging rise in Asia and Europe.· Dynamic points to diverging fundamentals between US and other regions..· FOB Asia base oils prices extend rise vs Singapore gasoil prices, pointing to increasingly tight supply-demand fundamentals.· Firm margins, and weaker diesel premium to crude oil, incentivize refiners to maximise base oils output.· Any subsequent pick-up in output would help to cushion impact of plant maintenance in the region..· FOB Asia Group II N500 premium to gasoil rises to highest since Q4 2021.· FOB Asia N500 premium breaks out of narrow range it held in for most of past six months..· China’s domestic Group II N150 premium to Shandong diesel stays unusually low, especially for time of year, even as it edges up..· Without any extension of past week's recovery, low premium would point to weaker-than-usual supply-demand fundamentals in China for the time of year..· CFR India Group II N70 premium to Singapore gasoil extends sharp rebound to highest since Sept 2024..· Surging premium facilitates arbitrage shipments to India, increases incentive for overseas producers to boost very-light grade base oils supply.· Incentive to increase shipments of very-light grade supplies contrasts with India's narrowing domestic diesel premium to CFR India N70 price in recent months.· Narrowing domestic diesel premium could dampen India's demand for very-light grades..· Europe’s Group I base oils export price premium to vacuum gasoil (VGO) extends rise, especially for brightstock..· Brightstock premium to VGO rises to highest since Q4 2022, while light/heavy-neutrals premiums far outpace year-earlier levels.· Price strength points to tighter supply-demand fundamentals, earlier than usual..· Rise in Europe and Asia base oils price premium to VGO/gasoil contrasts with steady US Group II premium to VGO.· Steady US Group II export price premium to VGO since mid-Jan 2025 contrasts with slumping premium in Jan-Feb 2024..· Higher US Group II premium vs year-earlier levels points to firmer supply-demand fundamentals compared with that period.· Steady US Group II premium vs rising base oils premium in Europe and Asia points to weaker supply-demand fundamentals compared with those markets..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 10 March.Asia base oils supply outlook: Week of 10 March
