· Asia’s base oils demand could turn more cautious amid improving availability of supply.· Rising supply gives buyers more flexibility to procure smaller volumes more frequently.· Rising supply raises concern about exposure to price-volatility, adding to attraction of managing stocks carefully.· Prospect of increased competition for market-share adds to concern about price-volatility and need to manage stocks carefully.· Weaker demand and rise in supply could limit regional refiners’ leverage to adjust prices in response to recent rise in crude oil prices.· Steadier prices could be a repercussion, which could support steadier demand..· Demand for Group I brightstock could ease amid waning concern about availability of supply.· Expectations of rise in availability of brightstock, and of alternative supplies from Singapore, could raise concern about sustainability of unusually steep brightstock premium to other base oils grades.· Premium of FOB Asia brightstock price over SN 500 price extends rise in H2 Sept 2025 to highest in more than four years..· FOB Asia brightstock price-premium to SN 500 averaged around $163/tonne in 2024 and $122/tonne in 2023..· China’s base oils demand could ease as seasonal pick-up in lube consumption faces prospect of fading over coming weeks.· Any lingering stocks from surge in base oils supplies ahead of seasonal pick-up in consumption could further curb buying interest.· China’s base oils supply surges to five-month high in Aug 2025 on back of higher output and steady imports..· Any signs of seasonal rise in lube demand lagging expectations would leave larger inventory volumes to clear, adding to buyers’ preference to hold back.· Any signs of domestic base oils prices facing more downward pressure would further incentivize buyers to delay any stock-replenishment plans. · China’s domestic Group II light-grade price extends fall versus FOB Asia cargo price and falls sharply versus domestic diesel prices..· Weaker N150 price-differentials add to signs that seasonal pick-up in supply-demand fundamentals has peaked.· China’s domestic Group I SN 400 price extends sharp rise relative to FOB Asia cargo price and relative to domestic Group II heavy-grade price..· Price-strength points to strong demand or tight supply.· Price strength and signs of strong supply-demand fundamentals coincide with pick-up in spot availability of Group I heavy-neutrals from northeast Asia.· Pick-up in spot availability instead points to weaker supply-demand fundamentals..· Demand in southeast Asia could ease as rise in Asia-Pacific base oils exports to the region in Aug 2025 helps to replenish blenders’ stocks.· Exports from Singapore to southeast Asia stay higher than usual over last four weeks even as they slip from previous week..· Higher volumes likely keep blenders’ stocks at healthy levels, curbing urgency to seek additional volumes..· India’s base oils demand could be more mixed.· Blenders’ base oils stocks likely remain lower than usual, especially for light grades, ahead of seasonal pick-up in demand from end of third quarter.· Lower stocks follow slump in India’s base oils imports to six-month low in Aug 2025..· Lower stocks likely to support requirements for additional supplies.· India’s imported Group II cargo prices maintain steady-to-firm premium to FOB Asia and FOB US cargo prices, reflecting that dynamic..· Asia’s base oils exports to India improve in Aug 2025 but are still second-lowest in seven months..· Rise in Asia’s exports likely to boost India’s total base oils imports in Sept 2025.· Larger rebound in India’s imports in Sept 2025 would also need higher volumes from other key sources like Middle East and US.· India’s imports from Saudi Arabia shows signs of rising strongly in Sept 2025 following lower-than-usual shipments from the Middle East country in recent months..· Signs of strong rise in India's imports in Sept 2025, and subsequent replenishment of stocks, could then prompt buyers to slow pace of additional procurement plans.· Buyers could seek to maintain inventories at lower levels than usual amid expectations of pick-up in supply in domestic market and in southeast Asia as new production comes online. · Rise in supply would give buyers more options and more flexibility to maintain lower stocks.· Rise in supply could impact base oils prices, adding to attraction of procuring smaller volumes more frequently..· Demand in Middle East for Group II heavy grades from Asia could get support from increasingly competitive prices vs Group I base oils.· Ex-tank Sharjah Group I SN 500 price-premium to CFR UAE Group II N500 widens in H2 Sept 2025 to highest level in more than two years..· Widening Group I price-premium and healthy availability of Group II base oils incentivize buyers to procure more Group II heavy grades instead..ExxonMobil ships Group II base stocks from new Singapore units.India’s August base oils imports fall.S Korea's Aug base oils exports to India rise.China’s August base oils demand rises.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 22 September
