· Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay muted amid seasonal slowdown and signs of sufficient supply to cover requirements.· Base oils margins stay firm even as supply improves and demand eases.· Buyers’ expectations that base oils margins will adjust to reflect current fundamentals could add to preference to hold back. .· China’s demand shows signs of staying more muted.· China’s domestic Group II base oils prices hold steady versus FOB Asia prices, deterring any pick-up in arbitrage shipments..· Prices hold steady versus FOB Asia prices even amid signs of fall in China’s base oils output in Nov 2024.· Lack of any significant price response to lower supply points to equally muted demand.· China’s domestic Group I brightstock price premium to FOB Asia cargo price extends slide to lowest in more than four years..· Weakness of China brightstock prices contrasts with sustained strength of FOB Asia brightstock price in face of tight supply fundamentals.· China’s price weakness suggests those tight supply fundamentals have less impact on China's domestic market..· Singapore’s base oils shipments to China fall over last four weeks, raising prospect of total exports in Nov 2024 falling from previous month..· Lower export volume adds to signs of more muted Chinese demand.· Singapore’s base oils exports to southeast Asia over last four weeks hold steady and relatively lower than in Jan-Oct 2024.· Lower shipments follow rebound in Asia’s base oils exports to southeast Asia in Oct 2024 and seasonal slowdown in demand in Q4 2024.· Dynamic suggests buyers are comfortable with existing inventory levels, confident they can top up with additional volumes if required..· Japan’s base oils and lube demand falls in Oct 2024 for fourth time in five months from year-earlier levels..· Drop in demand raises prospect of extending a steep fall in northeast Asia’s lube consumption well into Q4 2024. · Drop in demand puts on onus on other markets in Asia to limit slowdown in region’s consumption..· India’s demand for additional base oils supplies could stay more muted even after country’s supply lags demand in Oct 2024 for eighth month..· Shortfall reflects impact of low base oils output and lower imports in Oct 2024.· Supply-tightness likely peaked around Oct 2024, with supply likely to improve over coming months on recovery in domestic output and pick-up in availability of overseas shipments.· Expectations of improving supply raise prospect of price pressure as overseas suppliers compete for buyers in India.· Expectations of improving supply and price pressure incentivize buyers to hold back until they are confident that prices have finished adjusting accordingly.· CFR India Group II price premium to FOB NE Asia prices stays lower than in Q1 2024, when swathe of arbitrage shipments moved to India..· Narrower premium points to limited urgency to make arbitrage workable, puts onus on prices in supplier-markets to adjust to make arb workable..· Expectations of improving supply incentivize buyers to procure sufficient volumes from markets that are logistically closer and with faster shipment time in order to cover immediate requirements.· Dynamic puts pressure on prices for supplies from more distant markets like US to be more competitive to cover for time exposure between procurement and delivery of shipments.· India’s demand for very-light grade base oils could hold firm, with gap between domestic retail diesel prices and imported light-grade prices holding at widest in more than two years..· Demand for very-light-grade base oils tends to rise when price-gap widens..India’s Oct base oils supply lags demand .Japan’s October base oils output rises.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 25 Nov
· Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay muted amid seasonal slowdown and signs of sufficient supply to cover requirements.· Base oils margins stay firm even as supply improves and demand eases.· Buyers’ expectations that base oils margins will adjust to reflect current fundamentals could add to preference to hold back. .· China’s demand shows signs of staying more muted.· China’s domestic Group II base oils prices hold steady versus FOB Asia prices, deterring any pick-up in arbitrage shipments..· Prices hold steady versus FOB Asia prices even amid signs of fall in China’s base oils output in Nov 2024.· Lack of any significant price response to lower supply points to equally muted demand.· China’s domestic Group I brightstock price premium to FOB Asia cargo price extends slide to lowest in more than four years..· Weakness of China brightstock prices contrasts with sustained strength of FOB Asia brightstock price in face of tight supply fundamentals.· China’s price weakness suggests those tight supply fundamentals have less impact on China's domestic market..· Singapore’s base oils shipments to China fall over last four weeks, raising prospect of total exports in Nov 2024 falling from previous month..· Lower export volume adds to signs of more muted Chinese demand.· Singapore’s base oils exports to southeast Asia over last four weeks hold steady and relatively lower than in Jan-Oct 2024.· Lower shipments follow rebound in Asia’s base oils exports to southeast Asia in Oct 2024 and seasonal slowdown in demand in Q4 2024.· Dynamic suggests buyers are comfortable with existing inventory levels, confident they can top up with additional volumes if required..· Japan’s base oils and lube demand falls in Oct 2024 for fourth time in five months from year-earlier levels..· Drop in demand raises prospect of extending a steep fall in northeast Asia’s lube consumption well into Q4 2024. · Drop in demand puts on onus on other markets in Asia to limit slowdown in region’s consumption..· India’s demand for additional base oils supplies could stay more muted even after country’s supply lags demand in Oct 2024 for eighth month..· Shortfall reflects impact of low base oils output and lower imports in Oct 2024.· Supply-tightness likely peaked around Oct 2024, with supply likely to improve over coming months on recovery in domestic output and pick-up in availability of overseas shipments.· Expectations of improving supply raise prospect of price pressure as overseas suppliers compete for buyers in India.· Expectations of improving supply and price pressure incentivize buyers to hold back until they are confident that prices have finished adjusting accordingly.· CFR India Group II price premium to FOB NE Asia prices stays lower than in Q1 2024, when swathe of arbitrage shipments moved to India..· Narrower premium points to limited urgency to make arbitrage workable, puts onus on prices in supplier-markets to adjust to make arb workable..· Expectations of improving supply incentivize buyers to procure sufficient volumes from markets that are logistically closer and with faster shipment time in order to cover immediate requirements.· Dynamic puts pressure on prices for supplies from more distant markets like US to be more competitive to cover for time exposure between procurement and delivery of shipments.· India’s demand for very-light grade base oils could hold firm, with gap between domestic retail diesel prices and imported light-grade prices holding at widest in more than two years..· Demand for very-light-grade base oils tends to rise when price-gap widens..India’s Oct base oils supply lags demand .Japan’s October base oils output rises.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 25 Nov
