· Asia’s base oils demand likely to stay muted amid expectations of ready availability of supply and waning consumption at year-end.· Recent volatility of crude oil prices adds to attraction of holding back.· Even so, firm China/India prices vs FOB Asia cargo prices point to ongoing buying interest in those markets.· Asia’s lube demand typically peaks in month of October in the second half of the year before slowing during final two months of the year.· Demand likely to follow similar trend in Q4 2025..· Dynamic suggests blenders required sufficient base oils volumes in Aug-Oct 2025 to cover seasonal pick-up in demand.· Dynamic suggests blenders’ requirements for additional volumes now likely to ease.· Prospect of seasonal slowdown in demand over coming months would coincide with scant plant-maintenance work in Asia and expected start-up of additional production capacity.· Weak demand, sufficient stocks and healthy supply incentivize buyers to hold off stock-building and to procure sufficient volumes to cover lower requirements..· China’s base oils prices extend rise versus diesel and versus regional cargo prices.· Ongoing price-strength suggests pick-up in demand in Q3 2025 extends into start of Q4.· China’s base oils demand rises in Sept 2025 for third month, lifting Q3 consumption to highest for that period since 2021..· Extension of demand into Q4 2025 would help to absorb strong pick-up in supply in Aug-Sept 2025, limiting build-up of surplus volumes.· Steady demand, and shutdown of several Group II units in China, could slow further any build-up of surplus volumes..· Base oils demand in southeast Asia could be more muted as signs of healthy stocks give buyers leverage to hold back.· Base oils exports to southeast Asia from Asia’s key suppliers extend rise in Sept 2025 to highest level in more than a year, reflecting that dynamic..· Prospect of sufficient supply and lower crude oil prices add to incentive for buyers to limit size of inventories.· Singapore’s base oils exports to southeast Asia over last four weeks stay lower than usual..· Any extension of trend could facilitate blenders’ moves to work down existing stocks..· India’s CFR Group II cargo price-premium to FOB Asia price holds firm for N150, rises for N500..· Still-wide light-grade price-premium points to ongoing interest in additional supplies, with Asia the key source of those supplies.· Light-grade premium stays wide even amid prospect of India’s base oils imports holding at more elevated levels in Oct 2025 for second month.· Asia’s base oils exports to India rise in Sept 2025 to highest level in more than a year, reflecting that dynamic..· Several shipments from US reach India in H2 Oct 2025, adding further to supplies.· Signs of ongoing demand for additional volumes suggests that buyers’ inventories remain balanced-to-tight and end-user consumption remains firm.· Firm demand fundamentals could magnify impact of signs of slowdown in imports from Saudi Arabia in Oct 2025.· Imports from Saudi Arabia likely to fall further in Nov-Dec 2025 during round of plant-maintenance work in the country..China’s Sept base oils demand rises.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 20 October
