· Asia’s base oils demand could get support from pick-up in requirements for replenishment volumes to meet seasonal rise in consumption during final weeks of Q3.· Simultaneous rise in requirements throughout Asia-Pacific region could magnify pick-up in demand and competition for supplies.· Blenders’ relatively lower stocks would add to need for additional supplies.· Firmer demand and refiners’ more limited supply-surplus could curb downward price-pressure.· Signs of rangebound prices would provide further support to pick-up in demand..· China’s domestic base oil prices rise relative to Shandong diesel and FOB Asia cargo prices in early-Aug 2025, pointing to signs of such a pick-up in demand.· Subsequent pause in price-recovery suggests that any such pick-up in demand is muted.· Singapore’s base oils exports to China extend sharp rebound over past four weeks..· Rise in shipments could reflect pick-up in demand more from term buyers.· Any signs of muted consumption of those additional supplies could trigger slowdown in subsequent shipments.· China’s domestic Group I SN 400 price-premium to FOB Asia SN 500 cargo price holds at highest level this year..· Higher domestic price-differential adds to increasingly firm Group I SN 500 price-differentials throughout Asia.· Demand in southeast Asia could hold steady.· Blenders’ lower stocks incentivize moves to maintain steady procurement.· Signs of lack of any significant build-up of surplus supplies curb concern about exposure to sudden price-correction.· Expectations of range-bound prices add to incentive to maintain steady procurement.· South Korea’s base oils exports to southeast Asia rise to one-year high in July 2025..· Rise in shipments contrasts with drop in South Korea’s total exports, pointing to firm buying interest in southeast Asia.· Recent slowdown in Singapore’s base oils exports to southeast Asia balances out rise in flows from South Korea, curbing prospect of sharp pick-up in shipments to the region.· Steady flows incentivize steady procurement.· Ex-tank Singapore Group II N500 price-premium to FOB Asia cargo price extends rise in Aug 2025..· Increasingly wide price-premium partly reflects weakness of FOB Asia cargo prices.· Firmer ex-tank Singapore prices, despite weaker FOB Asia cargo prices, point to fundamentals that are sufficiently supportive to limit any price-pressure..· India’s imported Group II base oils price-premium to FOB Asia cargo prices holds firm..· Firm price-premium facilitates ongoing flow of shipments to India.· Firm price-premium points to ongoing buying interest even after India’s base oils imports surge to fourteen-month high in July 2025..· Rise in imports helps to balance out India’s supply-shortfall in June 2025 and to cover strong domestic demand at start of Q3 2025.· Ongoing buying interest suggests rise in imports was insufficient to replenish blenders’ depleted stocks.· More rangebound CFR India price-premium to FOB Asia prices suggests blenders are more comfortable with inventory levels, while still seeking additional volumes..· Singapore’s base oils exports to India stay lower than usual over past four weeks..· Drop in shipments, and signs of ongoing buying interest, could boost demand for supplies from other sources.· Drop in shipments precedes arrival by end-Aug 2025 of large volume of shipments from various markets including Saudi Arabia, UAE, US and Europe, as well as regular flows from Asia.· Drop in shipments from Singapore could reflect prospect of arrival of those cargoes..· India’s imports of Group I heavy neutrals rebound in July 2025..· Shipments get boost from wave of supplies from less regular sources like Turkmenistan.· Shipments rise after India’s imported cargo prices outpace prices in Asia, Europe, Middle East and US in Q3 2025..· Sustained demand, despite higher prices and increasingly competitive Group II prices, point to ongoing structural requirements for Group I heavy neutrals..· India’s demand for very-light grade base oils could face pressure from rise in supply and less attractive arbitrage.· India’s imports of very-light grade base oils rise to ten-month high in July 2025, boosting supply..· India’s premium of domestic retail diesel prices over CFR India N70 price stays wider than usual.· But diesel premium to CFR India N70 price falls in August 2025 to narrowest level since early-2025..· Wider diesel premium to N70 price tends to coincide with firmer demand for very-light grade base oils, and vice-versa. .· Pakistan’s base oils demand could get boost as seasonal pick-up in consumption magnifies recent recovery in lube demand.· Demand could get further support from drop in base oils supply in Q2 2025, leaving blenders with lower stocks..· Prospect of rise in demand adds to attraction for overseas refiners to target Pakistan with more shipments and to boost their share of Pakistan’s base oils imports.· South Korea’s share of Pakistan’s base oils imports extends recovery in June 2025 and in H1 2025..· Prospect of rise in Asia’s base oils supply in coming months boosts importance for South Korea to maintain or expand its share of supplies in markets like Pakistan..Pakistan’s June base oils supply falls.S Korea’s July base oils exports stay low.India’s July base oils imports rise.Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 11 August.Americas/EMEA base oils demand outlook: Week of 11 August
