Taiwan’s base oils exports stayed high in September for an eighth month, boosting its total shipments for the year to a six-year high.Total exports came to 48,500 tonnes in September, government data showed.The volume rose from less than 44,000 tonnes in August and from typical levels of less than 42,000 tonnes/month in 2024.The high volume in September boosted Taiwan’s total exports to more than 422,000 tonnes in the first nine months of the year..The volume was up more than 15% from less than 366,000 tonnes during the same period last year and the highest for that period since 2019.The high volumes this year coincided with and partially cushioned the impact of a drop in supply from other key regional sources like South Korea and Japan.Even with Taiwan’s higher volumes, Asia’s supply-demand balance was unusually tight in the first half of the year.The tight supply curbed the availability and need to move surplus shipments to more distant markets like the Americas and Europe..The extension of Taiwan’s high exports through the third quarter of the year then coincided with a recovery in regional supply following the completion of plant-maintenance work.The recent start-up of a new Group II base oils unit in Singapore is set to add further to supply.Any extension of Taiwan’s high base oils exports through the fourth quarter of the year would supplement the recovery in supply from those other sources.A sustained rise in Asia’s base oils supply could duly prompt a pick-up in arbitrage flows to more distant markets.A rise in regional supply could also increase competition for market share in southeast Asia especially.Such a scenario could be problematic for Taiwan.Its base oils exports to the region rose to a fourteen-month high in September and accounted for 38% of its total shipments.The share was up from 30% of its total exports last year and less than 25% in the years before 2024.The diversification of its shipments to outlets like southeast Asia and India cut its reliance on a single market, especially China.The expected start-up of new base oils production capacity in India in the coming months could impact that market’s demand for supplies from Taiwan.Such a scenario would increase the importance of southeast Asia as the key regional market for shipments from Taiwan.Competition for that market was also likely to intensify following the start-up of the new unit in Singapore. .Taiwan’s August base oils exports slip.S Korea's August base oils output rises.ExxonMobil ships Group II base stocks from new Singapore units.Base Oil News stories and analysis also available on ICIS platform
