Taiwan’s base oils exports fell in June as shipments to China slumped to a seven-month low.Shipments to southeast Asia by contrast surged to a multi-year high, cushioning the slowdown.The diverging trends could reflect an early indication of the impact of China’s decision to remove tariff concession on base oils imports from Taiwan and the subsequent redirection of supplies to other markets.The tariff concession ended from mid-June 2024.Taiwan’s total base oils exports of 31,500 tonnes in June fell from close to 39,000 tonnes the previous month to the lowest since February, government data showed.Exports of 7,200 tonnes to China in June fell from more than 15,000 tonnes in each of the previous three months to the lowest since last November.Taiwan’s total base oils exports and shipments to China slumped at that time because of scheduled plant maintenance work.Its exports to China fell in June even with no such maintenance work.Taiwan’s base oils exports to southeast Asian outlets like Singapore and Indonesia by contrast climbed to 17,700 tonnes in June.The volume rose from less than 10,000 tonnes in May to the highest in at least nine years.A strong pick-up in Taiwan’s base oils exports from late June extended into early July, raising the prospect of a rise in total exports this month.Like in June, most of those recent shipments were lined up to move to southeast Asia rather than to China.A more prolonged redirection of shipments away from China and to southeast Asia would present different challenges for both markets.For China, blenders using supplies from Taiwan in their lubricants formulations would face a growing incentive to switch to alternative sources, ideally from domestic refiners.Any requirement that the replacement supplies have OEM approvals could complicate such moves.For southeast Asia, Singapore and South Korea are the key suppliers for most markets in the region.Their moves to expand their market share in the region could face complications if there is a more marked rise in supplies from Taiwan..Taiwan’s May base oils exports rise.China’s May base oils imports fall.Asia’s May base oils supply rises
