Taiwan’s base oils exports fell to a four-month low in January, limiting any pick-up in surplus supply at a time of year when regional demand typically faces a seasonal slowdown.A more limited pick-up in surplus supplies complicated moves by regional buyers seeking to take advantage of the seasonal lull to lock in additional volumes.Taiwan’s base oils exports of 36,500 tonnes in January fell from 43,800 tonnes in December, government data showed.Exports were also down from typical levels of around 42,000 tonnes/month in 2024.Lower exports curbed the prospect of a large build-up of surplus supplies in Asia at the start of the year.Lower exports also followed firmer-than-expected demand in Asia at end-2024 that left buyers with lower stocks.Buyers now faced the prospect of tighter supply later in the first quarter of the year because of a widespread round of plant maintenance work in the region.Buyers' lower inventories and the prospect of tighter supply boosted the attraction of locking in additional supplies earlier.Lower supply from sources like Taiwan and Singapore in January, and more muted arbitrage flows from the US to Asia in recent months, limited those moves.The more limited ability to replenish stocks in turn left buyers more exposed to tightening supply-demand fundamentals over the coming months.Taiwan’s base oils exports of less than 11,000 tonnes to China in January fell from close to 14,000 tonnes the previous month and from more than 35,000 tonnes the same month a year earlier.The lower volume likely partly reflected the timing of the Lunar New Year holidays, which began in late-January this year. Last year they fell in the month of February.Even so, there was little sign of a significant rise in shipments to China so far this month.China’s base oils imports typically rise strongly in the first quarter of the year even as the country has become increasingly self-sufficient.The lack of any strong rise in base oils shipments from Taiwan to China would point to more muted demand or to a rise in supplies from other sources in the region.Taiwan’s base oils exports of 12,700 tonnes to India in January were the highest in six months.They also exceeded the 12,000-tonne level for the fourth time in five months.Lower-than-usual arbitrage shipments from the US to India and more volatile flows of Group II supplies from other sources in Asia in late-2024 increased the importance of the shipments from Taiwan..China’s Jan base oils output holds firm.Asia’s December lube demand rises .India’s December base oils imports slip .Base Oil News stories and analysis also available on ICIS platform
