Taiwan’s total base oils exports were relatively steady in April from the previous month, contrasting with a sharper change in the destination of the shipments.Total exports of close to 36,000 tonnes in April fell from 42,300 tonnes the previous month, government data showed.Exports would have been higher if an India-bound cargo completed loading at end-April as scheduled. The shipment instead departed early this month.The delayed shipment had no impact on supplies bound for China, which fell below 15,000 tonnes in April, from more than 18,500 tonnes the previous month.Almost all the China-bound shipments moved to the country in first-half April.Taiwan’s exports to China then slowed sharply over the following weeks and into first-half May.The drop in shipments coincided with an increasingly unattractive arbitrage to move cargoes to the country even at a time when China’s lube demand typically gets a seasonal lift.The squeezed arbitrage suggested that China’s domestic base oils supply was sufficient to cover demand.Taiwan’s base oils exports instead rose to other outlets like southeast Asia and the Middle East.The trend extended a sharp pick-up in shipments to the Middle East since the start of this year.Taiwan's total exports of more than 21,000 tonnes to the region in the first four months of the year already far exceeded its total shipments to the Middle East in all of 2023.The volume also, unusually, exceeded its total shipments to India in the first four months of this year.The rise in exports coincided with a slowdown in flows from Europe to the Middle East and logistical complications with shipments from Saudi Arabia to the region during the first few months of the year.Demand instead rose for supplies from alternative sources like Taiwan.The dynamic could change over the coming weeks following a rise in supplies of Group II base oils in the Middle East.Higher supply and weaker CFR UAE prices versus FOB NE Asia Group II prices in recent weeks could complicate the shipment of additional supplies to the region..Asia’s March base oils supply rises.China’s April base oils output falls
Taiwan’s total base oils exports were relatively steady in April from the previous month, contrasting with a sharper change in the destination of the shipments.Total exports of close to 36,000 tonnes in April fell from 42,300 tonnes the previous month, government data showed.Exports would have been higher if an India-bound cargo completed loading at end-April as scheduled. The shipment instead departed early this month.The delayed shipment had no impact on supplies bound for China, which fell below 15,000 tonnes in April, from more than 18,500 tonnes the previous month.Almost all the China-bound shipments moved to the country in first-half April.Taiwan’s exports to China then slowed sharply over the following weeks and into first-half May.The drop in shipments coincided with an increasingly unattractive arbitrage to move cargoes to the country even at a time when China’s lube demand typically gets a seasonal lift.The squeezed arbitrage suggested that China’s domestic base oils supply was sufficient to cover demand.Taiwan’s base oils exports instead rose to other outlets like southeast Asia and the Middle East.The trend extended a sharp pick-up in shipments to the Middle East since the start of this year.Taiwan's total exports of more than 21,000 tonnes to the region in the first four months of the year already far exceeded its total shipments to the Middle East in all of 2023.The volume also, unusually, exceeded its total shipments to India in the first four months of this year.The rise in exports coincided with a slowdown in flows from Europe to the Middle East and logistical complications with shipments from Saudi Arabia to the region during the first few months of the year.Demand instead rose for supplies from alternative sources like Taiwan.The dynamic could change over the coming weeks following a rise in supplies of Group II base oils in the Middle East.Higher supply and weaker CFR UAE prices versus FOB NE Asia Group II prices in recent weeks could complicate the shipment of additional supplies to the region..Asia’s March base oils supply rises.China’s April base oils output falls
