Asia’s lube demand is likely to fall in the coming months following a seasonal rise in consumption in the month of March.A slowdown in consumption raises the prospect of a pick-up in surplus base oils supplies in the region if output holds steady or rises.The surplus of Asia’s base oils supply over demand surged to more than 230,000 tonnes in the month of April in each of the last two years.The volume contrasts with a relatively low surplus of less than 140,000 tonnes in December 2023 and in January this year.The relatively-lower surplus so far this year provided support for Asia's base oils prices, which held firmer than prices in other regions.That dynamic could change over the coming weeks if Asia’s supply surplus rises.At the same time, the prospect of a seasonal rise in lube consumption in Europe and the US could trim the size of the surplus in those markets.Asia’s lube demand is likely to fall to less than 2.3 million tonnes in the second quarter of the year, according to the Baseoilnews short-term outlook.The volume would slip from around 2.5 million tonnes in the first three months of the year.Demand is likely to fall most steeply in the month of April before improving in May.The slowdown in April partly reflects the impact of a typical surge in consumption in the month of March.Blenders in several markets typically seek to maximise sales in March before financial year-end at the end of the month.The moves to bring forward consumption to March trigger a subsequent slowdown in April.The region’s lube demand is then likely to recover to closer to 2.4 million tonnes in the third quarter of the year.During that period, a seasonal rise in consumption in September usually balances out a typical slowdown in August..Asia’s January lube demand rises
Asia’s lube demand is likely to fall in the coming months following a seasonal rise in consumption in the month of March.A slowdown in consumption raises the prospect of a pick-up in surplus base oils supplies in the region if output holds steady or rises.The surplus of Asia’s base oils supply over demand surged to more than 230,000 tonnes in the month of April in each of the last two years.The volume contrasts with a relatively low surplus of less than 140,000 tonnes in December 2023 and in January this year.The relatively-lower surplus so far this year provided support for Asia's base oils prices, which held firmer than prices in other regions.That dynamic could change over the coming weeks if Asia’s supply surplus rises.At the same time, the prospect of a seasonal rise in lube consumption in Europe and the US could trim the size of the surplus in those markets.Asia’s lube demand is likely to fall to less than 2.3 million tonnes in the second quarter of the year, according to the Baseoilnews short-term outlook.The volume would slip from around 2.5 million tonnes in the first three months of the year.Demand is likely to fall most steeply in the month of April before improving in May.The slowdown in April partly reflects the impact of a typical surge in consumption in the month of March.Blenders in several markets typically seek to maximise sales in March before financial year-end at the end of the month.The moves to bring forward consumption to March trigger a subsequent slowdown in April.The region’s lube demand is then likely to recover to closer to 2.4 million tonnes in the third quarter of the year.During that period, a seasonal rise in consumption in September usually balances out a typical slowdown in August..Asia’s January lube demand rises
