Asia’s lube demand is likely to rise strongly over the coming months as the spring oil-change season triggers a pick-up in consumption.The region’s lube consumption is likely to rise to more than 2.55 million tonnes in the second quarter of the year, according to the Baseoilnews short-term outlook.The volume would be up from around 2.40 million tonnes in the first three months of the year and 2.38 million tonnes in the fourth quarter of last year.A rise in demand would coincide with a protracted and widespread round of plant maintenance work in Asia during the first half of the year.The region’s base oils production capacity is set to rise sharply this year as a swathe of new units start operations.The additional capacity is likely to add more supplies later in the year, curbing its impact on supply fundamentals during this current round of plant maintenance work.Asia’s supply-demand fundamentals typically tighten from the end of the first quarter of the year in response to rising lube demand and tighter base oils supply.That dynamic shows signs of repeating itself this year.Any such repeat would follow signs of a lower-than-usual build-up of surplus volumes at end-2024 and early this year.Asia’s lube consumption was stronger than usual at end-2024, leaving buyers with lower inventories.At the same time, South Korea’s unusually-low base oils exports in December curbed the size of a pick-up in surplus supply in the region.Lower-than-usual arbitrage flows from US to markets like India further limited the size of any supply-build.Tighter-than-usual fundamentals at the start of the year could magnify the impact of a seasonal rise in demand in combination with the round of plant maintenance work in the coming months..Asia’s December lube demand rises .Thailand’s December lube demand rises.Japan’s December base oils output falls.Base Oil News stories and analysis also available on ICIS platform
