· Asia’s base oils prices extend rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.· Prices get support from expectations of tight supply fundamentals amid round of plant maintenance, combined with seasonal rise in demand.· Lower-than-expected arbitrage flows from other markets like US could exacerbate tighter availability of supply.· Stock-building by refiners and blenders ahead of plant maintenance adds to supply-tightness.· Completion of stock-building process would remove that source of tighter supply.· Completion of some plant maintenance removes other sources of tighter supply.· Sustained pick-up in Taiwan and Singapore’s base oils exports in recent weeks cushions further any supply tightness.· Those various factors could point to market impact of supply-tightness already peaking for some base oils grades.· FOB Asia Group I brightstock premium to SN 150 and SN 500 continues to widen..· Widening premium suggests Group I supply tightness affects brightstock, with other grades facing much weaker fundamentals..· Taiwan and Singapore base oils exports show signs of rising to multi-month high in Feb 2025, partially cushioning impact of plant maintenance work in markets like South Korea and India.· Singapore’s base oils exports slow down over past week, still extend surge over past four weeks to highest since Sept 2023..· Taiwan’s base oils exports in Feb 2025 show signs of rising to or close to highest in more than a year.· Shipments mostly move to southeast Asia and India, with little sign of any significant pick-up in flows to China.· Rise in flows to southeast Asia would help to further replenish blenders’ stocks in that market.· Group II heavy-grade shipments show signs of accounting for more than half of Taiwan’s total exports in Feb 2025 for second month..· South Korea’s base oils output edges higher in Jan 2025..· Steady output contrasts with fall in domestic consumption and exports, triggering rise in net supply in Jan 2025..· Rise in net supply boosts stocks ahead of plant maintenance from end-Feb 2025.· Rise in net supply mirrors similar trend in Sept 2024, when stock-building tightened availability ahead of plant maintenance.· Supply tightness then eased during and after plant maintenance in Sept-Oct 2024.· Repeat of that trend would mean supply-tightness peaking in Jan-Feb 2025 amid round of stock-building, before easing over following months..· China’s premium-grade base oils output shows signs of holding firm in Feb 2025.· Even with firm output, China’s base oils supply typically sees pick-up in additional shipments from overseas markets in first quarter of the year to meet seasonal rise in demand..· India’s base oils output likely to fall in Feb-March 2025 because of plant maintenance work.· Drop in output would follow sustained pick-up in production in three months to Jan 2025..· Output set to get boost from start-up of new production capacity in coming months.· Output faces pressure to rise to meet sustained rise in domestic lube demand.· Saudi Arabia’s base oils shipments from ports of Yanbu and Jeddah show signs of staying lower in Feb 2025 for second month..· Asia’s base oils imports from Qatar rebound in Jan 2025 to second-highest level in thirteen months..· Rebound in imports follows unusual slump in shipments in Nov 2024 and especially Dec 2024.· Rebound in imports points to resumption of more typical flows from Qatar..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 3 March.S Korea’s Jan base oils output improves.India's Jan base oils supply lags demand.Global premium-grade imports from Middle East fall in Dec.Saudi Arabia Jan Yanbu/Jeddah base oils exports fall
· Asia’s base oils prices extend rise vs feedstock/competing fuel prices.· Prices get support from expectations of tight supply fundamentals amid round of plant maintenance, combined with seasonal rise in demand.· Lower-than-expected arbitrage flows from other markets like US could exacerbate tighter availability of supply.· Stock-building by refiners and blenders ahead of plant maintenance adds to supply-tightness.· Completion of stock-building process would remove that source of tighter supply.· Completion of some plant maintenance removes other sources of tighter supply.· Sustained pick-up in Taiwan and Singapore’s base oils exports in recent weeks cushions further any supply tightness.· Those various factors could point to market impact of supply-tightness already peaking for some base oils grades.· FOB Asia Group I brightstock premium to SN 150 and SN 500 continues to widen..· Widening premium suggests Group I supply tightness affects brightstock, with other grades facing much weaker fundamentals..· Taiwan and Singapore base oils exports show signs of rising to multi-month high in Feb 2025, partially cushioning impact of plant maintenance work in markets like South Korea and India.· Singapore’s base oils exports slow down over past week, still extend surge over past four weeks to highest since Sept 2023..· Taiwan’s base oils exports in Feb 2025 show signs of rising to or close to highest in more than a year.· Shipments mostly move to southeast Asia and India, with little sign of any significant pick-up in flows to China.· Rise in flows to southeast Asia would help to further replenish blenders’ stocks in that market.· Group II heavy-grade shipments show signs of accounting for more than half of Taiwan’s total exports in Feb 2025 for second month..· South Korea’s base oils output edges higher in Jan 2025..· Steady output contrasts with fall in domestic consumption and exports, triggering rise in net supply in Jan 2025..· Rise in net supply boosts stocks ahead of plant maintenance from end-Feb 2025.· Rise in net supply mirrors similar trend in Sept 2024, when stock-building tightened availability ahead of plant maintenance.· Supply tightness then eased during and after plant maintenance in Sept-Oct 2024.· Repeat of that trend would mean supply-tightness peaking in Jan-Feb 2025 amid round of stock-building, before easing over following months..· China’s premium-grade base oils output shows signs of holding firm in Feb 2025.· Even with firm output, China’s base oils supply typically sees pick-up in additional shipments from overseas markets in first quarter of the year to meet seasonal rise in demand..· India’s base oils output likely to fall in Feb-March 2025 because of plant maintenance work.· Drop in output would follow sustained pick-up in production in three months to Jan 2025..· Output set to get boost from start-up of new production capacity in coming months.· Output faces pressure to rise to meet sustained rise in domestic lube demand.· Saudi Arabia’s base oils shipments from ports of Yanbu and Jeddah show signs of staying lower in Feb 2025 for second month..· Asia’s base oils imports from Qatar rebound in Jan 2025 to second-highest level in thirteen months..· Rebound in imports follows unusual slump in shipments in Nov 2024 and especially Dec 2024.· Rebound in imports points to resumption of more typical flows from Qatar..Asia base oils demand outlook: Week of 3 March.S Korea’s Jan base oils output improves.India's Jan base oils supply lags demand.Global premium-grade imports from Middle East fall in Dec.Saudi Arabia Jan Yanbu/Jeddah base oils exports fall
